Reserve Bank assistant governor John McDermott indicated a ''wriggle'' towards an easing bias from the solidly neutral tone of the March 12 Monetary Policy Statement.
''Still, on McDermott's notes, no-one should expect any easing from the bank in the near term - least of all at this week's meeting.''
However, the speech indicated the central bank was more than a little nervous annual Consumer Price Index inflation might not get back to its 2% mid-point.
The failure of it to do so could yet dent general price- and wage-setting behaviour, he said.
''And so the bank seems to be minded towards juicing the economy to `above potential' in order to generate some internally-driven inflation.''
That could be seen as taking insurance against the CPI-depressing effects of the high exchange rate and low international inflation, Mr Ebert said.
The week begins data-wise with this morning's merchandise trade figures for March. The $424 million surplus anticipated by the BNZ was flattered by seasonality.
The real story was in the annual balance, which Mr Ebert believed would go further into deficit by $2.7 billion despite lower oil (import) prices, as weak dairy prices weighed more heavily on export revenue.
''This is obviously not good news for the nation's balance of payments. However, it helps the current account deficit is starting from a point of relative modesty - partly because of last year's bumper dairy income.''
Also today, the ANZ business survey needed to come off its recent boil if it was to start charting the GDP slowdown expected for this year.
Later today, the Reserve Bank publishes its data on banking system low-deposit loans for March through its loan-to-value restrictions.
They were expected to remain well below the 10% ceiling imposed by the Reserve Bank since October 2013.
Tomorrow, building consents would be released with Mr Ebert surprised to see another drop in new dwelling consent numbers for March.
Finance Minister Bill English is scheduled to speak to the Wellington Employers Chamber of Commerce at noon on Friday, presumably about the May 21 Budget.
