Most capital-raising companies of the past six weeks are in the bottom 26 of 54 companies whose debt profiles were analysed as "questionable" by brokers ABN Amro Craig.
Already in that six weeks, more than $1.3 billion has been raised in rights issues and bonds from eight companies, ranging from Pike River Coal's $41 million from shareholders, to Contact Energy's earlier $550 million, raised through five-year bonds.
ABN Amro Craig broker Peter McIntyre believes a further six to 10 companies will come to the market this year.
But he predicted a slowing of capital-raising between now and July, as companies completed end-of-year financial reports.
He forecast the majority of up to 10 companies would look at tradeable and underwritten rights issues over a period of time, as opposed to the overnight book-build of new share placements.
The ABN research identified 26 listed companies from the 54 whose debt-to-asset ratios, measuring the company assets against debts, have raised questions about their debt exposure.
And those companies' debt profiles, measured by how many times their respective earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) can be multiplied to cover annual interest payments, give an added warning indicator.
Top of the list, Allied Work Force Group has a very low debt/asset ratio of -16%, and its 2008 Ebitda covers its 2009 interest payment 26 times.
ING Property Trust, at the bottom of the list, has a 45% debt/asset ratio, and ability to repay 2009 interest just 2.2 times.
Mr McIntyre said property companies, including Kiwi Income Property Trust, National Property Trust and ING Property Trust, which are the bottom three of the list of 56, carried more debt; and their assets were depreciating in the current market.
"Several have sold properties to cover their financial position and to lessen debt levels," he said.
Mr McIntyre cautioned that analysis using debt/asset and Ebitda/interest comparisons had to be judged on a per-company basis, but "broad measure guidelines" had debt/asset ratios acceptable at 30%-35%.
If ratios were more than 60%, there were "alarm bells ringing".
He said (non-listed) dairy giant Fonterra had acknowledged its 62% debt/equity ratio was too high and wanted it below 50%.
An Ebitda/interest ratio above five times was acceptable, but below, as in the bottom tier of 26 companies, raised concerns.
ABN picked large cap companies coming off best from the debt profile to include Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, Sanford, Ryman, Telecom, Vector, Auckland International Airport and Mainfreight.
Companies with a more uncertain earnings outlook and lower Ebitda/interest cover included Nuplex, Skellerup, Pumpkin Patch and PGG Wrightson.
It was thought Fisher and Paykel Appliances was about to come to the market with a more than $150 million capital-raising issue, to pay or renegotiate $80 million of loans.
But this week Fisher and Paykel was reported to have secured an extension until June 30.
Of the 26 companies on the list with low (under five times' cover) Ebitda multiples, seven are among eight to have since, during the past month, raised capital: Fletcher Building (4.7 times), Freightways (4 times), SkyCity Entertainment (3.9 times), Nuplex (3.1 times), Vector (2.7 times), Pike River Coal (2.6 times) and Kiwi Income Property Trust (2.3 times).
Mr McIntyre said some of the remaining smaller listed companies, and especially those with a small number of dominant shareholders, may find it difficult to replicate the capital raising of larger companies.
"There is only so much cash out there, and without a diverse spread of shareholders, one dominant shareholder may baulk at having to reinvest again in the company," Mr McIntyre said.
Carrying manageable debt was good for companies and often the only way to achieve growth or in some instances make complementary acquisitions, Mr McIntyre said.
