Cumulative capital returns in the timeframe stand at 94%, or 11.7% a year.
Forsyth Barr broker Damian Foster says now earnings are higher and price/earning ratios (PEs) are above long-term averages, it is more difficult to generate easy gains.
"This has also been the longest run in the capital appreciation, based on data starting in 1990."
Part of the explanation for the ongoing growth had been the increasing proportion of the market now deemed to have "structural growth" characteristics, he said.
In 2007, less than 10% of the market had those characteristics, compared with
36% now. That had increased earnings growth in the market as well the potential PE multiple of the market.
Looking ahead, earnings growth expectations had moderated to mid-single-digit growth levels after several years of having been double-digit, Mr Foster said.
Within the market, exposure could still be found to higher growth among structural growth companies.
Within cyclical companies, there were also several companies expected to have near double-digit growth over the next three years.
They included Fletcher Building, NZX, Restaurant Brands, Sanford and Tourism Holdings.
However, more broadly, earnings per share growth was weak, he said.
The problem would be meeting market expectations in 2018.
"Putting this in context with regard to where the risks are to expectations, rising global economic growth should provide support to investor sentiment."
Interest rates should also remain supportive, given inflation remained subdued. And despite a shift to quantitative tightening in the United States, central bank balance sheets would continue to expand until at least near the end of 2019, Mr Foster said.
The expansion of those balance sheets, to date, had supported asset prices and that should continue to be the case.
More risks surrounded New Zealand domestic earnings. The Treasury growth forecasts for 5% nominal GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 appeared optimistic, given capacity constraints in the economy and dents appearing in business sentiment, along with higher labour costs.
Given a more circumspect view on the growth outlook, the level of fiscal stimulus might also see slippage beyond 2018, he said.
Higher costs imposed by the new minimum wage and other imposts suggested it might be hard to pass through into prices. Cyclical earnings exposures would have the most risk.
Structural growth companies earnings, by nature, should be more resilient, Mr Foster said.
The risks were mostly to do with valuation as high prices increased the potential for reactions to even minor earnings disappointments.
Defensive yield earnings expectations were the lowest. Return expectations were largely driven by yield and given the view interest rates should be modest, there was limited impact on valuations.
Structural growth had dominated the performance of the New Zealand equity markets in the past 10 years, notwithstanding the brief period between March 2014 and March 2015 when defensive yield companies outperformed, he said.
Not surprisingly, the trend suggested portfolios should have a bias towards structural growth.
