The quake on Monday was bigger in magnitude than the Christchurch quakes but was centred on very low population density areas.
The epicentre, Culverden, has a population of about 500 people. The township most severely affected is Kaikoura (population about 2000) along with Hanmer Springs (population below 1000). Christchurch's population was 370,000 at the time of its quakes.
''So soon after an event, it is hard to draw particularly accurate conclusions about anything but there are still a few things we can be clear on.''
There would be a modest short-term hit to GDP, or economic growth.
After events such as the earthquake, it would not be surprising to see tourism inflows drop marginally. Any such reaction was more often than not an overreaction as people failed to understand it was not the whole of the country that had been affected. But it would have an impact.
Kaikoura was a tourist destination. An estimated 1000 tourists were unable to leave the area. The regional economy was going to take a ''massive hit'' from the earthquake, as access to the region would be compromised for some time, Mr Toplis said.
While it was not a densely populated area, the road and rail links through it were important for much of the South Island. Massive damage to both rail and road networks would be problematic for many businesses both within the region and dependent on the transport links.
There would be an immediate impact on some dairy farmers who would be unable to get their milk to processors. Milk volumes were already under pressure from too much rain in the North Island. However, prices might go higher, he said.
Wellington had been affected. Many buildings were closed and retail activity, particularly in the middle of town, affected. That would show up in local spending data, although it should be short-lived.
''Putting all this together, it is plausible a small negative GDP impact is recorded for the latter part of the fourth quarter and, possibly, the earlier part of quarter one.''
On the flip side, the post-earthquake remedial work needed should have a medium-term positive effect on GDP, Mr Toplis said.
There would be modest general construction work throughout the region and in Wellington. But the biggest source of activity would be rebuilding infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure. That would include rail, roads, bridges and tunnels.
Prime Minister John Key, among others, had talked of a cost of billions of dollars.
The type of work needed would be a problem for the economy, Mr Toplis said.
New Zealand was already heavily capacity constrained in the general construction sector. Consequently, the extra demands would tend to compete with existing projects for resources. As a result, there would some substitution of activity and further upward pressure on the costs of construction across the country.
It was unlikely the Reserve Bank would consider cutting rates as the medium-term inflation pressures created would probably do exactly the opposite, he said.
Unlike after the Christchurch earthquakes, the majority of work to be done following Monday's quake was likely to be government funded. Insurers would again look after household and commercial needs but infrastructure tended to be self-insured.
The Government had had a windfall gain through the tax system over the last year as economic activity had increased. As a result, the Government's operating surplus had moved from deficit to a growing surplus.
''We had wondered how the Government might utilise that money. We now know, with reasonable certainty, where a chunk will go.''
Collecting and analysing the data after a big natural disaster was always a challenge, Mr Toplis said. This time it was even more challenging as the Statistics New Zealand building in Wellington was out of action and yesterday's retail sales release was postponed. Dislocation could be expected until Statistics NZ fully regrouped.
The market reaction to the earthquake had been minimal. The New Zealand dollar sold off initially, but that had largely now reversed.
Fixed interest markets barely moved, an appropriate response, he said.
