Mixed news on economy expected

New Zealand's economic activity for the three months to June is expected to have grown slightly following a surprisingly strong result for March.

Statistics New Zealand will on Thursday release its gross domestic product (GDP) figures which measure the output produced in the economy during a given period.

Westpac economists are expecting a 0.4% rise in June quarter GDP while ASB economists are expecting a rise of 0.2% - a substantial drop from the 1.1% in the March quarter.

Also this week, the country's current account deficit for June will be released. The deficit is expected to be 5.1% of GDP, up from 4.8% in March.

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said both figures would be tempered by history. The widening current account deficit was a legacy of weaker export prices during last year and the weaker GDP growth followed a puzzling large rise in the previous quarter.

"Looking ahead, both measures have yet to feel the full effects of post-quake reconstruction activity in Canterbury."

The GDP comparison between the March and June quarters was problematic, he said.

The March quarter was not only much stronger than other indicators suggested, it also included a large residual "balancing item" Westpac estimated contributed at least 0.2% to the rate of growth.

The best approach was probably to look at the March and June quarters as a whole.

That would mean total growth of 1.5% in the first half of the year which was not particularly fast during a recovery phase but was still better than anything seen last year, Mr Gordon said.

Markets had been content to let the widening current account deficit fly beneath the radar in recent times.

"We suspect there was a large element of disbelief about the strong March quarter GDP figures in the first place.

With the OCR firmly on hold, and international developments still grabbing the lion's share of attention, we don't think that markets will pay much heed to outcomes in line with our forecasts."

However, the larger the current account deficit, the more reliant New Zealand was on foreign savings, he said.

That was a vulnerable position for a country to maintain in a world where imbalances around the world were coming under intense scrutiny by markets.

 

Add a Comment