Monthly net migration to New Zealand was slower than expected in December but Westpac senior economist Felix Delbruck is relaxed about the figures.
Statistics New Zealand figures showed a net 4100 people moved to New Zealand in December compared with forecasts of 5100 and 5000 in November.
Annual net migration was 50,922 compared with forecasts of nearly 52,000 and 49,836 in November.
Mr Delbruck said the surprise was entirely in arrivals of non-New Zealanders, with a particularly sharp drop in arrivals on student visas.
Net departures of New Zealanders, mainly to Australia, increased slightly but remained very low at just 530.
''Seasonal factors can make the underlying trend hard to gauge around this time of year. December is typically a slow month for student arrivals before their numbers surge in January and February.''
Adding to the scepticism the drop in student arrivals was a meaningful signal, Mr Delbruck said he was unable to trace it to any particular source.
Student arrivals from India, while lower than a few months ago, remained high.
That had been the major source of the increase in student migrants over the past year and there was no sign that had abated, he said.
ASB economist Chris Tennent-Brown said it was too early to tell if migration inflows had peaked.
Departures appeared to have stabilised over the past six months but December was the first and only month where there had been a significant dip in arrivals in more than a year.
The attractiveness of the New Zealand labour market relative to Australia would continue to be a key influence, he said.
''We will be carefully monitoring migration figures over the coming months before coming to any conclusion about whether net migrations inflows are at a peak and about to return to more normal levels,'' he said.
