New Zealand net annual migration rose to a fresh high of more than 58,000 in the year ended June, Statistics New Zealand data released yesterday revealed.
Importantly for the labour market and capacity pressure, the latest figures included 51,657 working-age migrants.
New Zealand's annual net migration has already surpassed the Treasury's forecast peak of 56,600, and is closing in on the 60,000 figure used for the basis of the Budget's economic upside scenario.
Under that framework, the Treasury expected faster growth over the next two years, as new migrants would fuel consumer spending, before putting more pressure on the housing market.
Westpac senior economist Felix Delbruck said recent migration flows had been boosted by a cyclical low in departures of New Zealanders to Australia as well as very high inflows of temporary migrants on work and student visas.
The June net outflow of New Zealanders to Australia fell to a new monthly low.
''The number of migrants arriving on student visas is now easing back but the inflow of migrants on work visas remains extremely high at more than 3000 a month.''
Westpac expected net migration would start slowing as the year progressed, but at a gradual pace, he said.
Reconstruction activity in Canterbury was at a peak and the wider New Zealand economy had come off the boil.
In time, that would make New Zealand a less attractive destination for migrants.
But Australia was not yet a compelling alternative destination with households across the Tasman still downbeat about job and earnings prospects, Mr Delbruck said.
''Today's numbers will make little if any difference to the Reserve Bank's determination to cut the OCR on Thursday. Not only have other economic data been overwhelmingly arguing in favour of a lower official cash rate, but the Reserve Bank has increasingly been highlighting the role of migrants in easing market pressures rather than boosting demand,'' he said.
Separately, short-term visitor arrivals rose 9.2% to 177,000 in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, led by gains in Australian, Chinese, and American visitors who accounted for 61% of all arrivals in the month. Short-term arrivals rose 7.4% to 2.99 million in the year.
New Zealand tourism was getting a boost with the recent decline in the kiwi, which made it more affordable for foreigners to travel to remote places, and was bolstered by events such as the Cricket World Cup and the Under-20 Fifa World Cup.
