Trade figures last month were surprisingly robust, regarding export and import volumes, BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said yesterday.
The trade figures released by Statistics New Zealand showed that exports in May were $4.4 billion, $400 million higher than the market expected.
Imports for the month were $4.1 billion, $300 million higher than expected.
"These are sizeable bonuses and the results are real in that there were no large aircraft re-exports or imports in May making things look better than they were," Mr Ebert said.
The figures were also "real" in that they shored up export and import volumes in the June quarter, implying annual growth of about 4.5% and 5.5% respectively in terms of the GDP accounts.
"This is not a sign of a struggling economy or one in which the jump in first-quarter GDP was merely a technical flash in the pan, as others have argued."
The monthly balance was $300 million and the yearly balance was a deficit of $805 million.
The solidity of exports still owed a lot to primary production, especially the bumper dairy season recently finished.
However, among the very fastest growing export categories, when comparing the three months to May values with the previous corresponding period, was mechanical and electrical machinery and equipment - up 7%, he said.
That was testimony to the favourable New Zealand dollar-Australian dollar exchange rate for New Zealand's manufacturing exports and the fact manufacturers still sent the majority of their product to the relatively robust Australian economy.
The strength in imports looked to be in capital goods but the rest appeared to have held up comparatively well, Mr Ebert said.
"While we wonder how the economy will cope with stronger growth, given the relative lack of supply, our bigger worry is that the growth we project will become more and more dominated by domestic demand, with exports struggling to maintain their good run."
That took New Zealand back to a bad current account, he said.
