Markets respond to G20 initiatives

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, right, delivers a speech to the London School of Economics, in...
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, right, delivers a speech to the London School of Economics, in London, Thursday, April 2, 2009. Photo by AP.
Financial markets around the world took heart yesterday from the G20 summit agreement on stronger regulation of financial markets and a huge input of funding aimed at stimulating credit markets and helping countries in financial distress.

Share prices rose sharply around the world but ABN Amro Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said perhaps the most important outcome was the more subtle signals that these were changing times for markets and investors.

The New Zealand dollar rose strongly against major trading currencies, including a 1.23% rise against the Australian dollar, 1% against the US currency and 1% against the British pound.

The first element Mr McIntyre picked up was the G20 statement that regulatory authorities would have scope to take into account "macro-prudential risks".

"In our view, this seems to infer that authorities like central banks may be able to take into account asset bubbles when setting monetary policy.

"They have always been able to but never really have - much to the world's regret now.

"This statement makes it clear that governments now explicitly expect them to."

The second issue was that the summit's actions were a compromise between two opposing camps, he said.

The United Kingdom and the United States were pushing for a much higher level of fiscal stimulus than France, Germany and Australia. Others said adding more stimulus was simply fighting a debt problem with more debt.

Their argument was for less spending and more regulation.

"The $US1 trillion is rescue funding, not stimulus. The Europeans won that battle and they also won the call for more regulation.

"Our Government would appear to be siding with the Europeans. Its approach to the crisis has been cautious and massive fiscal stimulus to try and get people spending again is clearly off the agenda."

ABN believed stimulus packages would not fix the crisis. The banks needed to be sorted out, Mr McIntyre said.

Westerners tended to love quick fixes but there was no quick fix for the problem.

"The only way governments could dig us out of this hole is to offer to buy every house, every share and every financial product back at the lofty prices that we saw in October 2007. This would allow people to sell and pay back their debt."

That was how impossible it all was, he said. The prices had gone and would not be back for a long time yet. The only way forward was to repay debt from cash flow.

The deleveraging process was unavoidable and would take a long time. So would the economic recovery, Mr McIntyre said.

Forsyth Barr broker Tony Conroy said there were early signs of confidence coming back into the market as investors started believing the stimulus packages and co-operation between governments would work.

"We are moving from a technical basis where people are looking at prices and saying things have got cheap, to economic data coming through that is better than expected.

"Also, people believe the financial system is sorting itself out."

The Australian sharemarket reacted strongly to the G20 statements with resource and banking shares rising strongly.

Some bank shares were up 5% by late afternoon.

News out of China that there had been growth in manufacturing and indications that the United States economy was starting to turn had helped resource shares rise during the day, he said.

 

At a glance

• The G20 summit committed $US1 trillion ($NZ1.71 trillion) to the International Monetary Fund to be used primarily to provide emergency credit to countries in distress.

• Some of the funding was also earmarked to provide credit to finance international trade.

• There will be more regulation of the financial sector.

• Hedge funds, banks, tax havens and credit agencies are lined up for tighter rules and oversight.

• The summit also talked of the determination to resist protectionism which was regarded as a major threat to any economic recovery.

 

 

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