Last year, Kirin offered to pay $A11.50 for Lion shares as part of the funding Lion needed for a failed $A7.6 billion bid for Australian drinks group Coca-Cola Amatil.
A deal at $A11 a share would value all of Lion Nathan at $A6 billion, and the 53.9% stake not already owned by Kirin at $A3.2 billion.
Forsyth Barr broker Tony Conroy told the Otago Daily Times institutional investors would have most of the power in deciding if the bid progressed and at what price.
Kirin did not have voting rights on the final vote, leaving it up to the remaining shareholders to decide the fate of the bid.
A price of between $A11.50 and $A12 was the likely outcome, he said.
"Although we didn't pick the bid, it should not be seen as unexpected. Beer brewing is seen as recession proof, and Kirin would be buying a sound business at a good price when the yen is strong.
"It is an opportune time for Kirin."
ABN Amro Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said ABN retained its target price of $A8.55 for Lion shares but recognised a successful bid would need to be $A12 or more a share.
"In our view, the $A11.50 placement price Kirin was willing to pay to top up its holding in Lion Nathan in the latter's proposed bid for Coca-Cola Amatil sets the floor price in any proposed bid from Kirin for Lion Nathan."
With about $A4.2 billion available in cash, Kirin could afford to pay up to $A14.50 a share for Lion shares, although such a bid was unlikely.
In considering the takeover bid, Kirin was likely to take note of the solid earnings per share it could achieve through acquiring the outstanding interest in Lion Nathan thanks to Kirin's relatively low cost of funding, he said.
ABN estimated that Kirin's all-in cost of debt at December 31 was $A1 billion.
Kirin would also gain savings in packaging procurement, supply chain distribution and head office spending which could reach up to $A100 million.
The Japanese brewer could also look to Lion Nathan management to run or assist in running the group's operations in Australia, including National Dairy Foods and Dairy Farmers.
Lion Nathan operates three major breweries in New Zealand, in Dunedin, Christchurch and Auckland. Its major beer brands are Speight's, Waikato Draught, Corona and Becks.
In Australia, it owns four breweries and its major brands include Tooheys, XXXX, Heineken, Becks and Hahn. The company also recently acquired the Boags brands.
