June quarter GDP growth outlook 0.3%

Daniel Smith.
Daniel Smith.
Canterbury's rebuild continues to underpin the country's economic growth, but other than that there are few signs of growth in company investment and hiring.

Despite positive signals in some sectors, economists are picking gross domestic product growth in the quarter to June will be curbed by the drought and be around 0.3%, the same as in the first quarter.

The country's economic recovery was ''still at an early stage'' and was uneven across the regions, while ''Canterbury is surging'', the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's (NZIER) quarterly survey of business opinion said yesterday.

NZIER chief executive Jean-Pierre de Raad said nationally hiring was ''modest'', while there was strengthening in investment intentions for buildings, up 3% to 4%, and for plant and machinery sales, up from 8% to 10%.

''Domestic trading activity, a very good indicator of GDP [gross domestic product] growth, eased from 10% to 4%. This is consistent with over 2% annual GDP growth,'' Mr de Raad said.

ASB economist Daniel Smith said business confidence in the general economy ''held steady'' at 31%, which was ''a reasonably strong level by historical standards''.

However, ''the latest survey paints a stark contrast between Canterbury and the rest of the country'', he said. In Canterbury, activity was ''increasing rapidly'', employment was up strongly and cost pressures were becoming ''more and more exacerbated''. However, across the rest of the country things were much more subdued, investment and employment intentions, in particular,

picking up only very slowly on a nationwide basis, he said.

''Although detailed results are not available, once Canterbury is removed from the picture the rest of the country is probably experiencing very little growth in the rate of hiring and investment by businesses,'' Mr Smith said.

Mr de Raad said Canterbury was ''surging'' and Auckland was ''growing gradually'', but Wellington was ''contracting''.

''In the North Island, the drought negatively affected the Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions,'' Mr de Raad said.

Mr Smith said ASB expected ''modest'' growth during the second quarter, which would be consistent with the bank's current forecasts.

Companies' expectations of their own activity levels, which were usually a better barometer of economic activity, had ''improved very slightly'', from 26 to 29.

'' Less promisingly, experienced activity over the previous three months dropped from 10 to 4.

''That suggests that GDP growth over the second quarter may be similarly subdued to the first quarter, which came in at plus 0.3%,'' Mr Smith said.

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon was more forgiving, saying general business sentiment remained ''strong'' in the June quarter, a net 31% of firms expecting an improvement over the next six months, which matched the three-year high reached in the quarter to March.

''Investment and hiring intentions were both up, and reported hiring in the last three months rose to its highest since March 2008,'' Mr Gordon said.

While the survey suggested ''solid GDP growth'' for the June quarter, with the drought likely to have a ''sizeable impact on output'', Mr Gordon forecast second quarter growth would be ''somewhat closer to the 0.3% pace'' seen in the first quarter.

The NZIER's quarterly business survey began in 1961 and is the country's longest-running business opinion survey. Every quarter about 2500 companies answer questions on whether business conditions will deteriorate, stay the same or improve.''

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