Interest rates to remain static longer

The Reserve Bank is expected to be able to take a more relaxed view of inflation in the early part of this year and leave interest rates unchanged for longer.

The consumers price index (CPI) - the official measure of inflation - for the year ended December is due out on Thursday, with economists predicting it will fall sharply to between 2.4% to 2.2%, well down on the 4.6% recorded in September.

The main reason for the fall is the rise in GST dropping out of the series.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said the biggest drag on the December CPI would be food prices which rose 0.2% in December.

"We've assumed a small rebound in the month but the outcome isn't crucial to our CPI forecast."

Today's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion would provide a useful update on how pricing intentions were evolving, as well as how firms' own activities held up over the last few months, he said.

"Comfort on the inflation front is one reason we expect the Reserve Bank to be on hold [with interest rates] for some time yet."

Mr Stephens expected the first rise in the official cash rate to come in September.

ANZ-National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the hurdle for the next Reserve Bank move in either direction remained high.

Over the next 12 to 18 months, there were upside inflation risks from a combination of cost, demand and inflation expectation angles.

Barring a global meltdown, the next move in the OCR would be up, he said.

"While we are not quite as sanguine on the long-term inflation outlook as the Reserve Bank, inflation is currently not looking a threat. The Reserve Bank's current focus on offshore risks remains appropriate," he said.

Mr Stephens said fixed mortgage rates were good value at present given where he thought floating rates were headed over the next several years.

With no satisfactory resolution to the European debt crisis in the offing, there was no immediate pressure on fixed rates to rise.

Borrowers could afford to wait longer.

 

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