March has posted the 16th consecutive nationwide monthly house price decline, but at a notably slower pace than what has been seen during the housing downturn.
The Real Estate Institute’s (Reinz) house price index for March, measuring the changing value of residential properties, fell 13.1% from a year ago.
The seasonally adjusted national median house price fell 12.9% during the period to $775,000. Auckland’s median price fell 16.6% from a year ago to $1 million, while Otago was down 9.5% to $665,000.
In a statement, Reinz chief executive Jen Baird said the figures showed the continuing impacts of the economic climate, with both median prices and sales counts easing and properties taking longer to sell.
"While we have seen activity pick up in March, this year’s summer season has been muted.
"Prices have eased as we can see, and properties are taking longer to sell. Buyers are taking their time, they are negotiating and some are waiting to see if prices ease further," she said.
Days-to-sell have risen to 45 days for March 2023 — up 9 days compared to March 2022 and down 15 days from 60 when compared to February 2023.
At the end of March, the total number of properties for sale across New Zealand was 29,284, up 3625 properties (+14.1%) year-on-year, and up 0.7% month-on-month. New Zealand excluding Auckland was also up from 14,923 to 18,742, an increase of 3,819 properties annually (+25.6%).
Month-on-month, inventory increased 0.5%.
"Inventory levels are returning to the long-term average, which presents an opportunity for buyers looking to take advantage of the lower prices and less competition. Reinz members tell us first home buyers are actively returning in the regions with the advantage of choice as investors remain absent," Ms Baird said.
In an update, ASB senior economist Kim Mundy said the bank believed house prices still had further to fall, but the cyclone impacts and accelerating net migration were adding a layer of uncertainty to the outlook.
Immigration was accelerating quickly and continued to surprise towards the upside. Last week, Stats NZ figures showed a very large net inflow in February (up 11,655) and already strong January figures were revised higher.
The ongoing strength in the migration numbers was raising the risk demand for housing would be stronger than what had been expected, she said.
January and February’s extreme weather events had also impacted housing stock, tightening supply at least somewhat.
In the most impacted regions the impact on housing stock was likely to have been substantial, providing some support for house prices, though the exact impact was still unclear.
In Auckland, about 2800 houses had been red or yellow-stickered — "a drop in the ocean" but potentially making some difference at the margin.
