Gold demand pushes price beyond $US1000

Peter McIntyre
Peter McIntyre
Gold has broached the more than $US1000 ($NZ1434) per ounce threshold for the third time in 18 months.

The US dollar continues to fall, in the face of concerns over its value.

The greenback's weakening predicament was highlighted by the New Zealand and Australian dollars yesterday hitting one-year highs against it, at respectively $US68.60c and $US85.44.

A large basket of several metals also made gains, as investors punted on a resurgence in demand for resources.

Similarly, oil prices were boosted 4.5% to trade up to $US71 a barrel in West Texas.

On Tuesday night, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold went as high as $US1009.70 an ounce.

Yesterday it was trading on the London Metals Exchange above $US1004.

Gold first broached $US1000 in March last year, at $US1033, and again briefly in late February.

Craigs Investments Partners broker Peter McIntyre said the greenback's strength continued to be undermined because of talk by the International Monetary Fund and international rating agencies on creating another currency standard.

However, these issues were not new.

"People are looking to gold, as most currencies are not looking that attractive," Mr McIntyre said.

Forsyth Barr broker Peter Young said momentum was still positive, as investors focused on the US dollar weakness and inflation risks.

But he cautioned "momentum may run out of steam, leaving speculators high and dry".

BNZ currency strategist Mike Jones said investors were beginning to see some signs of recession recovery and were moving away from US dollars as these lost stability.

While the US dollar was the reserve currency held by banks around the world, its printing of million of dollars to fuel an estimated $5.3 trillion in guarantees, bail-outs and stimulus packages had China concerned the value of the currency it held was being undermined.

China had bought more gold in recent years, and Mr Jones said yesterday there was a rumour in the markets that China "may be stepping up that [gold purchasing] programme", prompting further overnight US dollar selling.

New Zealand Mint bullion dealer Michael O'Kane said because gold was traded in US dollars, New Zealanders could benefit from the strong exchange rate between the two currencies.

Prices were being driven by several factors, including investors seeking a "safe haven in troubled times", more investment by the Chinese middle class, and the beginning of the annual Indian wedding season, which absorbs up to 900 tonnes of gold in jewellery and dowries.

"A substantial body of analysts is predicting it will go even further, as global market volatility continues. Gold is seen as being safe," Mr O'Kane said.

"This [gold] rally is sowing the seeds of its own destruction," Associated Press reported Capital Economics economist, Julian Jessop, as saying.

"Near-zero interest rates in many of the world's largest economies reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold," Mr Jessop said.

The fact that 20 of the world's rich and developing nations promised over the weekend to keep in place their stimulus measures, which include spending as well as low interest rates, reinforced the appeal of gold, he said.

However, Mr Jessop was not convinced gold could sustain such high prices for long, or push much higher, since consumers quickly start selling gold items to take advantage of stronger prices.

Mr McIntyre said a wide range of metals made overnight gains, with nickel up 2%, aluminium and copper at least 3%, and lead, tin and zinc all up 6%.

 

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