For the past week, much of the economic data worldwide has been released with a disclaimer as to the possible effects of the gathering European crisis.
The ASB bank is picking 0.6% GDP growth for the quarter to March - slightly ahead of Reserve Bank predictions in June of 0.4% growth - when Statistics New Zealand releases the data.
ASB economist Christina Leung expected the 0.6% GDP growth would be boosted by stronger food production, but cautioned a decline in construction and retail sales volumes during the first quarter would reflect "the patchiness of New Zealand's recovery".
"A large part of this [0.6%] reflects an increase in milk production and livestock slaughter, which we expect will have boosted agriculture and food manufacturing production over the first quarter."
However, Ms Leung expected declines in construction and retail trade activity would offset some of the stronger food production data.
She expected an improvement in business investment during the first quarter would underpin growth, and a rebound in plant and machinery investment this calendar year.
"However, the recent escalation in Europe's crisis could trigger a period of caution."
The Reserve Bank last week held the interest-driving official cash rate (OCR) at the record low 2.5%, citing concerns about the European financial crisis and potential fallout for New Zealand, via its largest trading partners Australia and China.
Those concerns would likely continue to dominate the Reserve Bank's outlook and she expected the OCR to remain on hold until "at least" March 2013, as slow growth meant no urgency for an OCR rise.
The rebuilding work in Canterbury was gathering momentum with regional data reflecting a pick-up in consent issuance and construction during the past year.
Late last week, separate manufacturing data had the Canterbury Westland region ahead of the other three and in firm expansion mode.
Since September 2010, 1700 earthquake related consents had been identified, worth about $381 million.
"The true extent of rebuilding is likely to be greater, given this estimate only takes into account direct repairs and reconstruction on damaged sites."
