Analysts are divided on when the Christchurch rebuild - for which Fletcher is lead contractor - will fully kick in, with estimates ranging from mid-2012 to late this year.
Fletcher shares have declined from $9.38 on April 12 last year to trade around $5.89 yesterday; having retraced losses from $5.78 on Tuesday, its lowest price since March 2009.
Following its own profit and outlook warnings and the risk of further downgrades, going back to October, and subsequent brokers' downgrades in November, there has also been a corresponding stream of quarterly and monthly data showing a languishing construction sector Forsyth Barr broker.
Suzanne Kinnaird said while Fletcher has been the worst-performing blue chip company in New Zealand during the past six months; underperforming the NZX top 50 by 20%, she sees "deep value" in the share price for investors and reiterated Forsyth Barr's "buy" recommendation.
"We can all rattle off all the risks facing Fletcher's; from the downturn in Australia, the slower growth in China negatively impacting on the economies of New Zealand and Australia and the pushed-out timing of the rebuilding of Christchurch," she said.
"But, these risks are well and truly priced into Fletcher's current price."
Craigs Investment Partners broker Paul Valk said Fletcher's share price was beginning to recover at around $6.20 before the Christmas eve quake in Christchurch, but had subsequently been sold off.
At about $5.90 per share it still offered a "good buying opportunity", and Craigs was maintaining a "hold" recommendation on the stock.
He cautioned Fletcher still faced "deterioration in key markets". Each Christchurch quake required re-evaluation, and it was exposed to the slow housing markets in New Zealand and especially Australia, and in Europe, Southeast Asia, India and the United States.
In early December, residential building hit an 18-year low, with total building activity around the country down 2.3% for the quarter to September (a 10-year low).
The data from Statistics New Zealand pointed towards continued weakness in both residential and commercial activity for the year ahead, including aspects of rebuilding Christchurch.
Consents construction data released earlier this week for November, said that compared with November 2010, total residential consent values fell $9 million, or 1.8%, to $504 million, while total commercial values fell $65 million, or 13%, to $415 million.
The ASB said residential dwelling consents figures were "very subdued".
Much of the malaise in November building consents was attributed to dwindling activity in the South Island, while in the North Island gains in some centres were offset by declines elsewhere, resulting in flat-line results.
Ms Kinnaird said Fletcher has a very good collection of businesses in New Zealand and Australia, underpinning the reiteration of her "buy" recommendation.
"Given our expectation that we will stage a solid economic recovery over the next few years, Fletcher offers deep value and we expect it to deliver a gross return over the next 12 months that comfortably exceeds more than 20%,"she said.
