First-home buyers scarcer but sales, prices still rising

Tony Alexander.
Tony Alexander.
The Reserve Bank's contentious loan to value ratio (LVR) on mortgage borrowings has seen the number of first-home buyers in the market plummet during September, but separate surveys indicate prices are still rising.

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand released figures yesterday showing an almost 20% gain on the number of houses sold a year ago, to 6720, while the median national price, compared with a year ago, rose $29,000 to $400,000.

Auckland and Canterbury accounted for 95% of the price increase, with September house and section sales rising to $3.41 billion from $2.62 billion last year.

Overall, Otago September house prices rose $10,000, or 4.2%, to $245,000. The Central Otago Lakes area was down more than $21,000, or 4.8%, in median price at $419,000. Queenstown dropped 13%, or $75,750, to $500,000.

REINZ chief executive Helen O'Sullivan said the sales volumes were ''strong'' in the lead-up to LVR's introduction and ahead of expectations for this time of year.

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander's monthly BNZ-REINZ residential market survey said if the Reserve Bank expected its LVR to have a substantial impact on house-price expectations, then it would be ''very disappointed''.

The survey, of more than 400 real estate agents, said in September 51% expected prices to rise, compared to 41% in August.

''Price rises are seen as continuing,'' Mr Alexander said.

The LVR applies to people wanting loans of more than 80% of the asking price. Under the new rule, only 10% of a bank's loan book can be exposed to these higher-risk loans.

The risk is in values tumbling in the future and banks being left holding loans worth more than the devalued property.

Mr Alexander said the survey revealed ''a sharp decline in first-home buyer presence'', a much smaller decline in investor demand, and a barely noticeable impact on perceptions of where prices were heading.

''Along with the collapse in first-home buyer presence has come a sharp decline in perceptions of auction clearance rates in Auckland to a net 10% negative from 16% positive in September and 31% in August,'' Mr Alexander said.

He said the decline in first-home buyers would ''probably not'' be sustained as they adjusted to the new rules, found alternative finance sources or shifted their geographical buying focus.

The responses overall had 16% of agents saying they were seeing fewer people at open homes.

''This is a strong sign of cooling activity and the weakest result on record,'' Mr Alexander said.

In Australia, the number of home loans approved in August fell 3.9%, official figures show.

There were 49,912 approvals in the month, compared to 51,927 approvals in July.

Economists had expected the number of housing finance commitments to fall 2.5% in August.

Total housing finance by value fell 1.2% in August, seasonally adjusted, to $A23.8 billion ($NZ27 billion), the Australian Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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