Figures confirm economy growing

The latest economic growth data for New Zealand's economy was historical but ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said it still suggested the economy was in good shape heading into next year.

Statistics New Zealand figures showed gross domestic product, or economic growth, rose 1% in the three months ended September, faster than both the market and the Reserve Bank picked.

Average annual growth at 2.9% was the highest since early 2008.

''Our expectation is low inflation will keep the official cash rate parked at 3.5% until the end of next year.''

Mr Bagrie said, arguably the most relevant news yesterday was not the quarterly growth rate for the third quarter but rather the fact growth over the past two years had been revised down substantially.

Annual growth was downgraded to 3.2% from 3.5%. As the result of the historical revisions, estimates suggested the economy was running only fractionally above trend and well below the 0.7% gap estimated by the Reserve Bank in its December Monetary Policy Statement.

''This perhaps goes some way in explaining the mystery of why inflation has remained so low. However, in a broader sense, there is definitely still something unusual going on, given the discrepancy between alternative measures of resource pressure and non-tradeable inflation.''

Growth in ''real'' GDP was boosted by a stronger-than-expected 5.8% quarterly rise in the primary sector value added component, which added 0.4% to overall GDP.

Rising milk production drove the 4.7% increase in the agricultural valued added, and increasing oil and gas exploration and extraction activity contributed to an 8% quarter-on-quarter rise in mining.

The goods sector remained the growth engine of the economy but BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said there were reasons not to get over-excited by the third-quarter GDP outcome.

The strong increases in agriculture, mining and manufacturing production followed unusually weak results for June. The surprisingly negative result for construction, down 1.2%, seemed be a measurement issue related to the impossibly volatile civil engineering category rather than any questioning of the strong trends in the building sector.

The 2.5% quarterly fall in transport, postal and warehousing was more difficult to explain, as was the outsized 3.5% gain in information media and telecommunications.

''These are but some of the examples of volatility.''

Finance Minister Bill English said the economy remained one of the fastest growing in the developed world, confirming the Government's economic programme was taking New Zealand in the right direction.

New Zealand was in the unusual but encouraging situation where it had solid economic growth, more employment and higher wages but fewer pressures on inflation.

''This suggests New Zealand's economic growth potential before inflation sets in - essentially the speed limit of the economy - is higher than expected previously.''

Lower inflation and consequent lower tax revenue, was making it more challenging for the Government to return to surplus but it was good for businesses and families who were facing lower price increases than would normally be expected at this point in the economic cycle, Mr English said.

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