Poorer outlook for lamb growers

Farmers like David Pullar, of Pukerau, have seen forecast lamb prices for this season decline 30%...
Farmers like David Pullar, of Pukerau, have seen forecast lamb prices for this season decline 30% so far and are asking where it will end. Photo by Neal Wallace.
Last year has proved to be too good to be true for sheep farmers like David Pullar, of Pukerau.

He averaged $91.50 for his lambs last season but, on current forecasts and with an appreciating exchange rate which broke the US76c mark this week, this season's price could be 30% lower, in the mid-$60 range.

Just two months ago, meat companies were forecasting lambs to fetch $80.

"It's not quite back to where we were two years ago, but it's getting close. In the long term it is not sustainable for sheep farming," said Mr Pullar, who farms 147ha carrying 2000 stock units at Pukerau in Eastern Southland.

A 30% decline in lamb prices would translate to a drop of 35% to 40% in his net farm income, and there was next to nothing he and his fellow sheep farmers could do to turn those prospects around.

Mr Pullar said he feared the economy could once again be driven by domestic activity, such as housing, while exporters were left to struggle.

"How can you grow an economy based on swapping houses around?"He also feared low lamb prices would once again see the sheep industry squeezed by interest in dairying, which appeared to be heading into a more buoyant period for the next few years.

Mr Pullar said it was important farmers "did not shoot the messenger".

Meat companies were as much at the mercy of currency speculators as farmers.

 

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