Venison prices are again nudging $10 a kg, but the industry says it is better placed to handle the high price than last time it was reached in 2002, forcing prices to collapse.
Back then, the high prices burnt off customers, resulting in low prices and a cull of animals, but Deer Industry New Zealand (DINZ) chief executive Mark O'Connor said the market had grown since then and was absorbing about 200,000 more animals than were slaughtered in 2002, leading to the conclusion consumers could not get enough venison.
Promotional campaigns by industry and companies in recent years had moved the market away from a reliance on the hotel, restaurant and institution trade, and towards a greater role for retailers.
Companies had also changed the format of cuts, adding value to the product.
Mr O'Connor admitted the price had reached high levels, but said it had started to ease in recent weeks.
According to last Saturday's New Zealand Stock Exchange Agrifax farm schedule, the South Island price for AP grade hinds ranged from $7.82 a kg to $9.35 a kg and for AP grade stags $8.86 to $9.16 a kg.
"It has been getting up there," Mr O'Connor said.
A year ago, the same schedule was paying $4.77 to $6.78 a kg for hinds and $6.17 to $6.88 a kg for stags.
"It is fully priced and as an industry we need to be very careful with the decisions we make from here on in, such as not letting it get too high."
Venison could not be allowed to lose relativity with other proteins or consumers could switch product.
Mr O'Connor said DINZ has written to importers advising supplies were expected to fall in the short term, which could impact on the availability of venison.
He said the biggest challenge facing the industry was managing that decrease in supply to avoid harming the market and and getting wild fluctuations in the price.
Before 2002, the 10-year average annual slaughter was 400,000 animals, but this year DINZ expected 600,000 would be killed before declining to an expected 450,000 in the year to September 2009 and 400,000 after that.
Mr O'Connor said he would like to see steady, managed incremental growth in the number of deer farmed, as exporters have said they could handle more animals provided growth was managed.
Previous price fluctuations had been the result of external shocks such as disease outbreaks, but Mr O'Connor said the impact of the credit crunch was unknown, with New Zealand's largest venison market, Germany, officially in recession.
In the past few years, the supply profile had changed, with many part-time, small or inefficient farmers liquidating their herds.
"What we are backing is that the farmers we have left are very good farmers who have the scale and are able to do the job well."
Those farmers have a production challenge.
Mr O'Connor said the industry would like to see the average carcass weight increase from between 50kg and 55kg to a range of 60kg to 65kg and the calving percentage increase from mid-70% to mid-80%.
Research programmes have been launched to assist in that work, improvements Mr O'Connor said would be a major boost to the industry.