'Fair to middling' Otago better than most

Jane Turner
Jane Turner
The Otago economy has been rated only "fair to middling" by the latest ASB Main Report Regional Economic Scoreboard, but the province is ahead of most of the rest of the country.

Auckland remains at the top of the ranking for the 10th consecutive quarter with the the second-top ranking possible of four stars (be there or be square).

Otago, Tasman and Nelson are grouped with three stars ahead of Waikato, Gisborne, Taranaki, Manawatu-Wanganui, Wellington, Marlborough, Canterbury and Southland on two stars (needs an energy injection).

The rest of the country is on one star (take pity), including the previously much higher-rated Hawkes Bay.

ASB economist Jane Turner said yesterday Otago was a region that had benefited from an influx of displaced Cantabrians, which had led to a surge in both population and employment in the region.

That, along with solid house price growth and very strong retail spending over the December quarter, meant Otago had shot up the rankings into fourth place.

The tourism industry in Otago had a "decent" year. The number of guest nights recorded in December was 12% higher than the same month a year ago, she said.

One weak spot was construction activity, particularly in the non-residential area.

After several strong quarters, Southland slipped slightly in the rankings.

The region was the only one in New Zealand to experience lower retail sales in December than a year earlier, although most other indicators remained strong.

Canterbury remained in the middle of the rankings, as many of the problems arising from the earthquakes continued to dog the region, Ms Turner said.

Falls in population and employment were the main issues, while retail spending and house prices had held up well.

"Indeed, the housing market appears to be regaining its feet, with sales volumes picking up over the second half of 2011."

Residential rebuilding still has not started in earnest and further delays were possible due to ongoing seismic activity, she said.

Non-residential construction figures had climbed noticeably as the region's infrastructure repairs got under way.

"In the face of this, Cantabrians remain upbeat. Although consumer confidence slipped a little in the December quarter, the overall level remains higher than that in most other regions of the country," Ms Turner said.

This week had been one of data releases. The ANZ-National Bank business outlook had recorded that the year had started on a confident note.

A net 28% of businesses expected better times for the economy in the year ahead, up 11 points from the end of 2011.

Chief economist Cameron Bagrie said a better tone was apparent across most of the survey.

A net 31% of businesses expected an uplift in activity for their own businesses over the year ahead, up 5% on December.

Employment intentions rose and export intentions increased. Profit expectations lifted but investment intentions dropped slightly.

"The construction sector is leading the charge. It holds top spot across general business confidence, firms' own activity expectations, employment, profits and investment intentions," Mr Bagrie said.

Inflation nuances augured well for the Reserve Bank taking a patient approach of an elongated period of monetary support for the economy.

The new year had started in good cheer but whether that translated into real activity remained the "million-dollar question", he said.

It was left to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research to cast a pall over the proceedings when it rated the economic outlook as flat.

"But given the state of the global economy and the ongoing hangover from excessive borrowing in previous decades, this is not a bad state to be in," principal economist Shamubeel Eaqub said.

The slow recovery was a necessary part of putting household and government finances in order and would put the economy back on to a more sustainable growth path.

The institute was expecting only 1.5% economic growth this year, recovering to 2.4% in 2013.

The rebuild in Canterbury would ramp up gradually from mid-year through to 2013.

"We are less optimistic than most of the timing of the rebuild, as we think persistent aftershocks, tougher building codes and insurance issues will slow Canterbury's recovery," Mr Eaqub said.

- dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

 

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