Exporters expect dollar to rise 10c against weakened greenback

Nick Tuffley.
Nick Tuffley.
New Zealand exporters are expecting the strength of the New Zealand dollar to climb from US65c, on average, to US75.3c by this time next year.

The forthcoming election is also having an impact on business intentions to safeguard against foreign exchange risks.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said there was a ''clear turnaround'' in businesses' sentiment about the New Zealand dollar, having ''significantly revised upward'' their outlook on the average rate between the kiwi and US dollar.

Three months ago, the survey's 12-month outlook against the USD was US65c, but the latest survey now expects the cross rate to be US75.3c by the third quarter of next year.

''Over the last couple of years political events have triggered sharp exchange rate movements or periods of heightened volatility,'' Mr Tuffley said.

He cited the volatility of the UK pound, which plunged following the Brexit vote and subsequent general election.

The ASB survey was of 434 businesses with annual foreign exchange turnover of more than $1 million.

Respondents were asked if they expected New Zealand's forthcoming election would increase their use of foreign exchange hedging, or options, to protect earnings.

''Around 44.5% of respondents had increased the extent of their foreign exchange hedging as a result of the election,'' Mr Tuffley said.

About 38.5% intended to increase hedging, while 17% were not changing their hedging programme, Mr Tuffley said.

The previous survey had the exchange rate in a range of US68.5 to US70.6c, while during the most recent three-week survey period, to August 4, the range was US73.2c to US75.2c.

''The major driver of the move was the concerted weakening of the USD, with the US dollar index falling by approximately 6% from the start of May to the start of August, although there have been signs of USD stabilisation of late,'' Mr Tuffley said.

The weakened US dollar was because of reduced optimism that US President Donald Trump's stimulus and tax reform agendas could be quickly passed, Mr Tuffley said.

The other survey topic was the persistently high kiwi against its Australian counterpart, above A90c since April.

Mr Tuffley said about 40% of respondents had already passed on the impact of the high exchange rate into their selling prices, while almost 50% had absorbed it into their own profit margins.

He said importers were more likely to pass on exchange rate impacts, while exporters were more likely to absorb them into profit margins.

The overall percentage of respondents expecting an increase in foreign exchange turnover during the year ahead rose from 76.5% in June to 78.1%.

However, while exporters and importers both expected increases, expectations of increased turnover by exporters fell to their lowest level in two years, at 67.3%.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

Add a Comment