Millions of dollars in pending energy company bonus share issues and outstanding share instalments payments are due during the next eight weeks for three major companies.
While the issuing of extra bonus shares and payments owing would be expected to weigh heavily on share values, broker Forsyth Barr believe those issues are ''unlikely to materially impact'' on the state-owned enterprise's share prices.
Forsyth Barr broker Andrew Rooney said the bonus share issues of Genesis Energy and Mighty River Power, plus a second instalment of Meridian Energy, were all due during the next two months.
''We've had a look at other bonus issues and instalment receipts, and in what was a modest surprise, have seen no clear-cut evidence that those events will have any impact on the share prices of the companies concerned,'' Mr Rooney said.
Genesis is expected to release about 12 million bonus shares, and Mighty River Power about 9 million shares, which will be transferred from the Crown to domestic investors; an increase of respectively 2.6% and 1.4% on the number of free-float shares.
Investors will become eligible for those shares on April 16 and May 12 respectively.
''We investigated whether there was any downwards price pressure immediately after the event from investors rebalancing their portfolios,'' Mr Rooney said.
The only applicable company that could be found for comparative purposes was Aurizon Holdings.
''We found relative trading volumes decreased coming up to the date for the loyalty bonus shares, and increased afterwards,'' he said.
However, the Aurizon share price underperformed relative to the benchmark prior to the date, and outperformed afterwards, which was the opposite of expectations, Mr Rooney said.
The final payment, of 50c on each share issued for Meridian Energy, is due to the Crown by May 15.
''We are interested to see historically if there has been a substantial effect on the share price of instalment receipts around settlement date,'' Mr Rooney said.
Forsyth Barr research found that on average, companies outperformed the S&P/ASX200 benchmark index leading into the settlement date.
''We are not expecting the forthcoming events to have a material impact on the share price, either heading into or after the events,'' Mr Rooney said.
He said February financial results of the energy companies were ''mixed''.
''Meridian Energy was the standout result, both in terms of coming in ahead of the previous corresponding period and [market] expectations, and providing investors with confidence around future capital returns,'' he said.
In contrast, Contact Energy surprised the market with its announcement of lack of capital distribution to shareholders, plus its overall result was worse than it should have been.
Contact expects to generate up to $1 billion over the next five to eight years, but instead of returning some to shareholders, has signalled it might invest in Pacific Rim geothermal projects instead.
Genesis and Mighty River Power's financial announcements were ''reasonable'', given the first-half hydro issues during a drought.
For second-half trading during 2015, Mr Rooney said the implied forecasts were ''generally lower'', than those a year ago.
The notable exception was Genesis, and to a lesser extent, Mighty River Power.
The second half of 2014 was dry in the North Island, and in the South island started wet before drying off from last December; meaning increased negative risk for Mighty River and Contact.
''In Mighty River Power's case the risks are that North Island hydro continues to be weak, and for Contact Energy, it's that the cost savings don't come through as planned,'' Mr Rooney said.
