The issues affecting the global economy included a movement to greater isolationism and protectionist policies.
The vote by Britain to leave the European Union, Brexit, was a major issue but perhaps more importantly, the so-called ''Trump effect'' on broader trade policy was so far largely unknown, Mr Hope said in a planning forecast released yesterday.
The recent earthquake and its aftershocks showed again New Zealand was not immune to significant risks beyond its ability to control and it put any uncertainty about the international outlook into context.
''A very significant event for many businesses and households affected by it, the earthquake, and its aftermath raise important issues as to the country's overall resilience to adverse events.''
At one level, there had to be an optimal amount of risk management, since nothing was foolproof, and the cost of trying to eliminate or achieve very low risk was likely to be prohibitive, he said.
The question for many households, businesses and Government over the coming months and even years was whether current risk management strategies were appropriate for both known and, perhaps more difficult, unknown risks facing society - whether as a result of natural disasters or human-induced terrorism and food safety risks.
On a more positive note, growth continued in the broader New Zealand economy and nearly all key indicators pointed to a respectable growth rate of about 3.5% a year over the forecast period released by the Treasury.
The recently released half-year fiscal and economic update showed the Government's books in good shape, with improving surpluses in coming years, Mr Hope said.
Both the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing index and the Performance of Services Index continued to show solid growth and, as proved by a range of indicators such as accommodation rates, tourism was still ''pumping''.
The recent earthquakes would affect some key South Island destinations, such as Kaikoura, but would probably also mean tourists seeking alternative destinations.
Consequently, their impact on tourism in general could be more muted than it might have been, although the impact on potential tourists could be more problematic, he said.
Potential tourists might either delay their holiday plans or seek alternative destinations, which was always a risk.
The construction industry continued to strengthen. Some of the resources freed up as the Christchurch rebuild reached a peak were likely to be deployed in repairing infrastructure damaged during the recent earthquake.
The agricultural sector, particularly dairy, had shown ''considerable resilience'' in weathering low dairy payouts over the past couple of years, Mr Hope said. Both the GlobalDairyTrade auction and Fonterra's forecasts were improving.
Fonterra's forecast payout for the current 2016-17 season was now well above what was generally considered the break-even point and surveys were showing farmers' confidence significantly improved, giving a much more optimistic outlook.
Positive results from the major sectors were reflected in growing consumer confidence, driven by factors such as low unemployment, better employment prospects and low inflation. The latter had led to prolonged low interest rates and lower debt servicing costs, he said.
