The run into economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, starts today with the release of building work put in place, to be released by Statistics New Zealand at 10.45am.
GDP figures will be released on September 21, two days before the election.
BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert expected a ``decent bounce-back'' in real terms for today's figures, after a 3.5% fall in March which was seen as mainly technical and timing, rather than the start of any
rot.
But, he said ``we wouldn't want to push the second quarter rebound story too far, as the construction sector is running headlong into severe capacity constraints''.
``Big promises are clashing with on-site reality.''
For Thursday's June quarter wholesale trade, the BNZ was expecting nominal sales to increase by about 2%, seasonally adjusted.
That would infer a 1% expansion in volume, which was what the economists were working with for the wholesale component of GDP.
Mr Ebert anticipated Friday's manufacturing sales and inventory data would infer a 1.5% expansion in the industry's production for the second quarter. Food processing should be an aid.
Going into the third of second-quarter GDP indicators, the BNZ estimated a production-based increase in manufacturing of 0.9% for the quarter and 2.6% annually.
Real term GDP growth was likely to register strongly when it was released on September 21. However, it would probably be running especially fast, at close to 8% on an annual rate.
``This captures the flush of income through the commodity expert sector.''
Early tomorrow morning, the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction was likely to show a lift in prices.
The wider story of international dairy prices was already well set. They had rebounded substantially off their lows of late 2015 and early 2016.
That had meant an increase in dairy farm income of about $5.7billion for the season.
ANZ would release its Job Ads Series tomorrow.
Overseas, a European Central Bank meeting will be held on Thursday.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said it would be the highlight of the global economic calendar this week.
Markets were not expecting any change in policy, although they would be watching for any detail on the timing when the central bank might end its easing programme.
At the last meeting in late July, chairman Mario Draghi said the ECB saw signs of ``unquestionable improvement'' in growth and pointed to plans to start discussing changes to the easing programme later in the year.
``While he wouldn't give a set time frame at that point, he did say policy makers were unanimously agreed on starting to talk about this after the European summer.''
Mr Draghi might hold off giving full details until October, although the ECB could signal an extension to its asset purchases beyond December, Mr McIntyre said.
Some volatility in the euro was expected either way. The currency last week hit almost 1.21 against the US dollar, the highest level since January 2015.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets today and the outcome will be released at 4.30pm.
No change was expected to the cash rate which was 1.5%, 0.25% below New Zealand's official cash rate.
The RBA looked to be on hold for the time being, Mr McIntyre said.
