ASB's chief economist, Nick Tuffley, said the global recovery was under way, despite some commentators highlighting the risks of a double-dip recession in the United States and elsewhere.
"This preoccupation with a double-dip recession overlooks that a weak recovery has long been part of global economic forecasts, and ignores some positive economic developments."
Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan said there were "good stimulus factors" ahead for New Zealand's economy, including tax cuts, government stimulus of more than $500 million, good commodity prices and the money to be spent rebuilding Christchurch.
However, while he also believed a double-dip recession was "unlikely", he said there was still a lack of confidence in businesses to employ and invest, and in consumers to buy.
"Where commodity prices are at present, people are expecting 10% nominal growth in the economy during the next year. But everyone is grappling with households and businesses being risk-averse, and trying to reduce their debt," he said.
In a separate consumer confidence survey released yesterday, the ANZ-Roy Morgan index, the current conditions survey, fell 11 points to its lowest since mid-2009, underpinned by a 25-point "plummet".
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said that while the GST rise was influential, "the decline in current conditions does not bode well for immediate appetites to spend regardless".
Mr Tuffley said the US had benefited from a massive productivity boost and competitive gains, and the Asian region had outperformed, despite US and European export markets remaining subdued.
"All of these factors are impacting on our local situation. However, the silver lining from a New Zealand perspective is that with our economy continuing to look somewhat sluggish, the Reserve Bank is likely to keep interest rates on hold until March," Mr Tuffley said.
"These hiccups in the [US] recovery aside, we expect that New Zealand will continue on the slow and winding path to recovery without a second dip along the way."
Much of the recent uncertainty has been focused on the weakness of the US dollar.
The New Zealand dollar climbed against the greenback overnight on Wednesday, having dropped to a two-week low in reaction to a surprise interest-rate increase in China that prompted investors worldwide to cut risk exposure, Reuters reported.
From about US74.30c at its low point, the kiwi was up to US75.30c yesterday.
Reuters said investors had unloaded the US dollar as a report from an influential consultancy said the US Federal Reserve planned to buy $US500 billion of Treasury debt over six months to invigorate the faltering US economy.
At one point, the US dollar hit a 15-year low below 81 yen, while its stock markets sagged to two-month lows.
Markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to start pumping money into the US economy as soon as November, a policy known as "quantitative easing", which has driven the US dollar down since September.
Mr Tuffley said it had been "a particularly rough time for Mainlanders" during the past two months with the failure of South Canterbury Finance, the Canterbury earthquake, and the heavy snowstorms in Southland during lambing.
"The Canterbury earthquake will have the most resounding impact on the New Zealand economy, affecting the wealth of the country from several quarters, including through accumulated spending on insurance premiums and tax, as well as the personal costs to those who have sustained damage to their properties and businesses," he said.
He estimated the earthquake was likely to shave about 0.2 percentage points from September-quarter growth, but the December quarter was likely to receive a substantial boost as the early stages of reconstruction kicked in.
- Additional reporting NZPA.
