Copper factor in Oceana share strength

Peter McIntyre.
Peter McIntyre.
Oceana Gold's recent strong share price is a huge turnaround from being one of the hardest-hit shares on the stock exchange last year.

At present, Oceana is vying with Meridian Energy for share strength, having during the past year-rolling gained more than 60% - up from $1.71 in January to around $2.65 in mid October.

Oceana's fortunes are increasingly reliant on the strong performance, and subsequent boosted cash flows, from its Didipio gold-copper mine in the northern Philippines.

The copper, as a by-product, is offsetting the cost of producing the gold from Didipio, but in New Zealand, costs to produce gold from Macraes, in East Otago, and Reefton, on the West Coast, are becoming difficult to contain.

Both mines are on notice they could be closed or mothballed over 2015-17.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre highlighted Oceana's management had been ''agile'' in having quickly put in place hedging collars, which guarantee gold prices in a certain range on much of the New Zealand production, and had also acted clearly by reducing the New Zealand mine lives.

''All of this has been achieved in a sector that is capital- and equipment-intensive,'' Mr McIntyre said.

Spot gold prices have been hovering around $US1200 ($NZ1520) in recent months.

Mr McIntyre said volatility would remain in the gold market, but he expected the price to move in a $US1200 to $US1300 band during the next 12 to 18 months.

''The market is now aware that the cash flow generated from Didipio is significant. The net cash flows of the [competing] major gold producers are lower,'' Mr McIntyre said.

In the face of escalating costs around the world, the $US1200 price has been pegged as close to the commercial viability for some mines, but Mr McIntyre said the copper offsets for Oceana meant it could likely weather a price below $US1200.

Mr McIntyre said spot gold, at about $US1200, was on a plateau and four times during the past year it had sipped below that price, but quickly rebounded above $US1200.

''There's been good demand as a safe haven, particularly from China and India, which to an extent have underpinned the price,'' he said.

He said geopolitical tensions, such as in the Middle East, and terrorism threats would usually prompt higher demand, but this had been offset by the strengthening of the US dollar, which detracted from buying gold.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

Add a Comment