Consumers more confident- surveys

Two bank surveys released yesterday suggest that consumer confidence in New Zealand is improving quickly from lows following the February 22 earthquake.

However, the results come with a warning that both surveys were conducted before Monday's severe aftershocks in Canterbury.

The Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index rose 14.1 points from 97.9 to 112 in the three months ended June. A reading above 100 indicates there are more optimists than pessimists.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan index rose by nine points to 112.5 in June.

ANZ-National Bank market economist Khoon Goh said the latest rise was a more meaningful increase compared with last month's rise.

"If we attempt to adjust the confidence reading for seasonal factors, the monthly increase is more impressive at 13 points, close to historical average and the highest reading since August last year."

All five component questions behind the headline consumer confidence measure recorded improvements, he said.

The largest rise was regarding the expectations of consumers about the general economy in the next 12 months, followed by how they compared financially relative to last year.

Although both those readings were still in negative territory, there had been an improvement.

The non-metropolitan regions in the North Island recorded the strongest rises in confidence, up 17 points to 116.6. Canterbury recorded the lowest level of confidence at 105.6, although this was up 14 points.

The survey was taken before Monday's large aftershocks hit Christchurch, Mr Goh said.

Otago was not mentioned in the itemised results.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said New Zealand household confidence had rebounded to more normal levels after being badly dented by February's earthquake.

About as many people now expected good and bad economic times in the year ahead as they did last December. People's perceptions of their own conditions had continued to improve.

Not surprisingly, the survey showed that conditions remained challenging for Cantabrians, he said.

"But along with recent recoveries in business confidence and retail spending, today's consumer confidence data is a sign that the wider economy has weathered disruption from the earthquake better than we, or the Reserve Bank, might have feared back in March. What's more, we're now seeing quite a bit of regional optimism in Auckland and the dairy exporting regions," Mr Goh said.

 

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