An industry that is still trying to emerge from the storm of the recession will have to grapple with a new set of costs that may be difficult in a competitive environment for some to recoup, Mr Shirley, who replaced Tony Friedlander at the forum this week, said.
"So, will some companies go to the wall? Let's say that the margins continue to be very, very tight and companies need to look for any competitive advantage they may have.
"The ETS might mean even more efficiencies are found, but for some companies that have been operating as competitively as they can, then the impost of additional and likely increasing costs mightn't be sustainable."
The transport, energy, and industrial sectors were brought into the Government-imposed scheme this week, amid ongoing disquiet over how the new costs imposed by the scheme will affect consumer behaviour and business.
The Government expects fuel to cost another 3.5c a litre and power prices to rise about 5%. Those extra costs will affect household and business budgets even before businesses "pass-through" the additional cost to consumers.
Mr Shirley said the scheme might target domestic commerce, but it would also affect the country's competitiveness. It cost 30% more to move goods by road in New Zealand than in Australia - and the new Australian Prime Minister had already said she was in no hurry to impose a comparable emissions scheme.
He expected other challenges in his first months at the head of the road-users lobby group, but hoped to see a fair model to structure how the road network to come out of the review of contentious road user charges.
The Government appeared sympathetic to the role of road transport in the economy - its adoption of four networks of national significance suggested "we've had 15 years of ad hoc development, and I hope we have now moved on" - but there was no doubt that roads needed upgrading.
"In this, I'm not sure New Zealanders understand how important a strong road network is. The road transport industry remains a central driver for our economy. We don't need a gold-plated and costly network to ensure its competitiveness, but we do need to spend the next few years ensuring it is fit for purpose."
Mr Shirley was head of the Researched Medicines Industry Association before moving to the forum.
He is a past Minister of Fisheries and Associate Minister of Health, Forestry, and Agriculture.
