''The tourism sector has been in the doldrums for most of the past 10 years,'' he said.
Tourism's share of gross domestic product (GDP), output and employment had all fallen, while the global financial crisis had taken its toll, but 2013 has begun ''buoyantly'' for the sector and arrivals had ''turned a corner'', Mr Penny said.
While the rebuilding of Christchurch opens it up for more business and earthquake fears subside, the strength of the New Zealand dollar against its Australian counterpart could weaken Australian visitor numbers.
Arrivals in 2013 had ''got off to a rollicking start''.
''March quarter arrivals picked up 4% and then jumped a further 4.8% in the June quarter,'' Mr Penny said.
During August, there were 100,000 Australian visitors, 17,700 from China, 8800 from the US, 7400 from the UK and 7300 from Japan.
For the year to August, overall visitor numbers were up 0.9%, or 22,491, at 2.65 million, Statistics New Zealand data shows.
Mr Penny said arrivals from the main markets had increased, or at least ''held their own'' during the first half of 2013, compared with a year ago, which represented a ''major turnaround'' for the UK, Germany and US markets.
Mr Penny singled out the Chinese market, saying there was a powerful trend in increasing arrival numbers, which were up by 27%, or by 49,000 visitors.
''Airline capacity and other factors permitting, we expect a similar increase [from China] over the year ahead,'' Mr Penny said.
''The Chinese market is charging ahead.''
He noted the Chinese economy was in a cyclical slowdown. Its GDP growth declined from 7.7% in 2012 to 7.4% this year and was forecast to be 7.1% next year, but the long term prospects ''should swamp any cyclical slowdown''.
''With the number of Chinese middle class expected to more than double by 2020, growth in this market has a long way to run,'' Mr Penny said.
While the US market is growing, up by 12,000 compared with the same six-month period a year ago, the UK and German markets had also ''turned a corner'', rising by 600 arrivals compared with a year earlier.
He cautioned that the ''flip side'' to improvements in the UK, US and German markets could see a weakening in the Australian market, as its economic growth weakens in the face of a mining downtown and the New Zealand dollar rising against the Australian dollar.
''For most of the last 10 years, the the currency [NZD] has traded above average against the currencies of both our major trading partner [Australia] and our tourism markets,'' he said.
The earlier strength in the Australian economy had boosted its dollar value against the New Zealand dollar, meaning the kiwi had been less of a drag on the the tourism sector than it had been for the wider exporting sector.
Mr Penny said Christchurch guest night numbers were improving and, while down 27% on pre-earthquake levels, were growing at 25% a year, compared with 10% growth across the country.
