A new Infometrics report names Central Otago, which includes Queenstown, Wanaka and Cromwell, as one of the regional hot spots in the country. Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said of all the hot spots, Central Otago had by far the lowest population density.
Within the region, it was easy to pick out Queenstown as being the focal point for growth — especially given the 8.7% growth in the town’s population over the past two years.
"But focusing on only Queenstown would mean missing out on other towns within the region enjoying a surge in popularity in tandem with Queenstown’s ongoing expansion as a lifestyle and tourism destination."
The 2006-13 inter-census period was the first time since 1956-61 Queenstown’s population growth (10.3% over the seven years) was not more than double national nationwide population growth of 5.3%, he said.
In terms of growth rates, Queenstown’s increase in population had been overshadowed by Wanaka, Cromwell and Arrowtown since the 2001 census. Even as Queenstown’s population growth accelerated again over the past three years, racing ahead of Statistics New Zealand’s high population projections, the population pressures and shortage of affordable housing in the town meant the number of people living in surrounding areas had risen substantially.
Wanaka provided a different feel to the more internationally-focused Queenstown and was appealing increasingly to New Zealanders as a more low-key and less expensive alternative to live in or for holidays or retirement, Mr Kiernan said.
The town had major developments planned, including the Northlake residential subdivision of 1600 houses, and the mixed-use Three Parks area. Within those developments there were plans for a sports facility and swimming pool, as well as retail space to encompass larger stores. Commercial and industrial space was also expected to be included as part of a business park within the Three Peaks development in Wanaka.
Cromwell offered a more affordable alternative to either Queenstown or Wanaka, Mr Kiernan said. The town’s population shrank between 1986 and 1996 as Clyde Dam workers moved away but had surged in the past 10 to 15 years because of employment opportunities offered by the horticulture and viticulture industries. There was also a spill-over effect from the tourism boom in Queenstown.
Expanding education facilities reflected the town’s increasing population and it was also attracting more retirees. As it grew, the town aimed to make sure a significant chunk of development work was focused on affordable housing, avoiding the problems seen in Queenstown of trying to accommodate lower-paid service workers within the area, Mr Kiernan said.
In his executive summary, Mr Kiernan said with population growth of 2.1% a year, and running at its fastest rate since the mid-1970s, nearly all of New Zealand had a bit of a "hot spot" feeling to it this year.
The spread of Auckland’s housing boom through the "halo regions" and across much of the rest of the country had demonstrated one of the consequences of strong population growth.
However, strong population growth had wider implications than simply adding heat to the housing market, he said.
One of the most significant effects of an increasing population was the relative ease it provided businesses for increasing revenue or sales volumes.
The effect was exemplified by the differing economic fortunes between shrinking towns in the central North Island, such as Taumarunui, and growth areas in other parts of the country such as Waiuku. As people continued to leave, towns lost more of the critical mass needed to sustain other businesses in the area, resulting in a declining trend with the potential to be self-reinforcing, Mr Kiernan said.
In contrast, growth areas could sustain more businesses and bigger firms — even if the average spending by each individual was not increasing.
The hot spots identified in the report were not looking at run-of-the-mill population growth over the next five to 10 years. In many cases, the locations were faced with rapid expansion because they were areas for development targeted by local councils as planners tried to facilitate urban growth to match their city or town’s popularity.
"Growth of this magnitude doesn’t just require new houses to be built. It also needs to be accompanied by appropriate physical and social infrastructure, the integration of business areas and employment opportunities and the provision of new retail and service centres within the development."
Limiting Auckland to just four hot spots seems somewhat unfair when the entire region was creaking under the weight of rapid population growth and an undersupply of housing, Mr Kiernan said.
The four areas being showcased within Auckland looked set to be the standouts for the region, even if affordability issues and stresses around infrastructure provisions did end up constraining the wider region’s ability to grow over the medium-term.
The hotspots
Orewa/Albany — population growth 2013-23 of 53%; Hobsonville — 254%; Central Auckland — 47%; Beachlands/Drury — 54%; North Hamilton — 70%; Papamoa — 74%; Central Wellington — 25%; Central Christchurch — 83%; Southwest Christchurch — 105%; Central Otago — 29%.
Provincial possibilities
Marsden Point/Ruakaka, Bell Block, Kelvin Grove
