Separate data released this week - for manufacturing and construction, the Reserve Bank's holding of the official cash rate at 2.5% and analysis on the forthcoming gross domestic product - are all tempered with caution.
Otago-Southland Employers Association chief executive John Scandrett summarised the data releases saying "there still has to be cause for a degree of ongoing caution as to the actual level of economic improvement".
"We will continue to see uncertainty across manufacturing outcomes," he said.
The BNZ Capital and Business New Zealand seasonally adjusted performance of manufacturing index for November was released yesterday, revealing a third consecutive month of national gains, but up only by an "unspectacular" 1.3 points, to 51.8.
An index reading above 50 indicates manufacturing expansion, and below 50, contraction.
For second month running, Otago's index result was at the forefront of the regional manufacturing survey outcomes at 61.9, compared with the Central region at 58.9 points, the Northern region's 62.9 points and Canterbury-Westland at 54.4 points, Mr Scandrett said.
"Positive results [for Otago] were recorded as part of the analysis of employment levels, new orders and deliveries of raw materials," he said.
Nationally, across almost all of the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices, the regional survey confirmed the country was seeing some expansionary tracking outcomes.
"However, earlier in the week we saw September quarter manufacturing and construction industry data released by Statistics New Zealand.
"This essentially presented signs of a continuing sideways movement on the overall condition of the economy," Mr Scandrett said.
Earlier in the week Statistics New Zealand's construction-activity data for the third quarter to September revealed its seventh consecutive decline, including a 40% drop in construction from its peak two years ago.
The value of seasonally adjusted manufacturing sales for the quarter fell by $1 billion, or 5.1%, the fourth consecutive quarterly fall.
The decline prompted ASB economist Jane Turner to revise downward her forecast on gross domestic product from +0.2% for the quarter to September to -0.1%.
For the year to September, annual gross domestic product was forecast by ASB to record as its "absolute bottom" -2.2%, prompting Ms Turner to caution that subsequent growth would be slow and weak.
Similarly, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard noted on Thursday, when leaving the official cash rate unchanged at 2.5%, that rising house prices led by inflation had created uncertainty as to how that would affect consumer spending.
"There remains considerable uncertainty about the durability of the expansion," Dr Bollard said of New Zealand's economy in general, but housing was a "key uncertainty".
Both Otago-Southland, at 61.9, and Central Otago, at 58.9, posted their highest level of expansion since November 2007, NZPA reported.
BNZ economists said in a statement yesterday while the manufacturing sector "has had its fair share of woes" during the recession, things were starting to look better as the manufacturing index had managed to stay above 50 points since September.
Business New Zealand chief executive Phil O'Reilly said although results during the past three months "have not shown activity kicking ahead in terms of stronger expansion" the manufacturing sector had improved from a year ago when the national index was 34.9.
