Big week ahead with reporting season, inflation figures

Chris Timms
Chris Timms
It will be a monster week ahead for political, economic and corporate news flow, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said yesterday.

On the global calendar, the reporting season ``really ramped up''. In China, the five-yearly Congress was being held and Chinese GDP would be released.

Locally, the latest quarterly inflation figures were out today, and monthly migration statistics and dairy prices would also feature through the week.

``There are numerous annual meetings taking place, which should mean a trading update or two. And last, but certainly not least, we might know what our next government looks like at some point over the next few days,'' Mr Timms said.

Global sharemarkets rose again last week. United States shares hit record highs as investors looked ahead to what should be a ``reasonably solid'' reporting season, he said.

European and United Kingdom shares were also slightly higher, while New Zealand and Australian markets posted even more impressive gains over the week.

Today's release of September quarter consumer price index figures was the highlight of the local week, Mr Timms said.

Markets were expecting a quarterly CPI increase of 0.4%, up from 0% in June, and for annual inflation to rise to 1.8%.

The forecasts were stronger than the Reserve Bank had indicated in its August monetary policy statement. The next MPS was due on November 9 and the CPI was one of the key pieces of data before then.

However, just because the CPI came in higher than what the Reserve Bank expected, no upward pressure on the official cash rate should be assumed.

House prices had slowed, consumer spending was likely to follow and immigration was likely to have peaked, either naturally or through forthcoming policy changes from the new government, he said.

``All these factors will likely mean slower economic growth heading into 2018, which means domestic interest rates might remain lower for longer.''

The latest GlobalDairyTrade auction results were due early tomorrow. Economists would look for any signs poor weather in New Zealand had affected milk collection and for signals about where global demand was sitting.

New Zealand migration figures for September were more important than usual, given recent trends.

The latest figures were due to be released at 10.45am on Friday.

Last month, net migration remained healthy at 5490, although it was the lowest in 16 months. Annual migration was still strong at more than 72,000 but there were emerging signs it might have peaked and could slow from now - regardless of policy changes.

``It will be interesting to look at the detail of this month's data for evidence this trend has continued. If so, this could dampen the domestic growth story heading into 2018, given population growth has been running at the highest levels since the 1960s, strongly boosting activity.''

The annual meeting season would heat up this week across Australia and New Zealand and he was expecting trading updates and some price-sensitive comments, Mr Timms said.

In New Zealand, Comvita, Tourism Holdings, Port of Tauranga, Sky TV and Sky City would hold annual meetings.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare was holding an investor and analyst day during the week.

In Australia, there were annual meetings from Telstra, CSL, Origin Energy, Brambles and Ansell.

Quarterly updates were also due from a few of the energy and mining companies, including Oil Search, Woodside and South 32.

 

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