Chief economist Ganesh Nana said yesterday that New Zealand's post-recession recovery had been tentative at best and remained unfinished.
Economic activity had yet to return to pre-recession levels.
Annual GDP for calendar 2010 was below that of 2007.
Looking ahead, New Zealand's economic prospects were driven by the need to rebuild the physical infrastructure and environment of Christchurch, as well as restore its business and community networks.
"We are not as optimistic as the official forecasts that expect the rebuilding exercise to have achieved significant momentum in six to nine months' time.
"We expect this task to take longer to get under way due to practical requirements, along with regulatory processes and organisational capacity."
Dr Nana did not expect significant momentum for the rebuilding exercise until well into next year.
That would affect GDP figures for the March 2013 year.
He also expected skills and capacity constraints to limit the extent of the GDP boost well past the forecast horizon.
At the same time, the short-term situation remained bleak, with consumer spending set to continue to be subdued as employment and income prospects remained uncertain.
Appropriate policy responses to the future economic situation would be critical to medium-term prospects, Dr Nana said.
Over-zealous attempts to bring the government accounts back into surplus risked a repeat of the 1990 experience.
At that time, spending cuts drove economic activity down, reduced government revenue and spiralled the government accounts into further deficit.
