Forsyth Barr broker Andrew Rooney said while overall earnings before interest and tax (ebit) for the half year to December was estimated to be up 1% at $285 million, Australian ebit was expected to be down about 18%, at $63 million, against the previous half year, which itself had been weak.
''Further advances in New Zealand giving improving activity levels will be offset by an apparent struggle in several key Australian businesses,'' Mr Rooney said.
The ebit in New Zealand is expected to increase 11%, to $186 million.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said full-year growth for 2015 would be driven by three factors: New Zealand housing and construction demand, Australian housing recovery, and further in-house cost reductions.
Fletcher was expecting operating earnings similar to last year, with ebit of $281 million, and a stronger forecast for second-half trading, he said.
Mr Rooney said overall New Zealand activity levels remained on ''an upward tack''.
Residential, commercial and infrastructure activity all supported further growth, although slower than in recent periods.
Sales revenue for the half is estimated to be down 0.4%, from $4.27 billion to $4.25 billion, and underlying after-tax profit to have increased 4.7%, from $154 million a year ago to $161 million.
Mr Rooney said earlier guidance by Fletcher had identified lower earnings due to weak demand for coal seam gas pipes and lower volumes in both the steel roll-forming and concrete businesses.
However, Fletcher had also told shareholders in October it expected a significant lift in earnings in second-half trading, with Australian activity improving and sustained New Zealand growth.
''The domestic [New Zealand] market is approaching mid-cycle and is supported by the Christchurch rebuild and higher levels of house building,'' Mr Rooney said.
While the construction cycle in Australia had turned positive, he believed volume growth would be limited.
• Fletcher's former divisions of building products and infrastructure products have been renamed heavy building products and light building products, respectively.
