ABN Amro Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said the 12-month target price was downgraded from $3.01 to $2.33 with international passenger growth estimates falling from 4% to 2%.
ABN maintained its "buy" recommendation on the stock as it remained strategically well placed with its land holdings, retail division and income from landing charges, plus a proliferation of more direct long-haul flights, Mr McIntyre said.
"Auckland airport has also fulfilled a lot of its capital expenditure needs in the past three or four years . . . which was what made it attractive to foreign ownership," Mr McIntyre said of two unsuccessful overseas bids for major stakes in the operation.
Aside from falling passenger numbers, Mr McIntyre said there was a downgrade on the expected earnings from the company's retail concession areas, falling 27% from about $10 million to $7.3 million for the full year.
ABN maintained its forecast that earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) for the second half of 2008 would be 8.2% up on the corresponding period last year at $135.3 million.
Because of fewer passengers and lower retail revenue, ABN cut its full-year 2009 ebitda by 2.5% to $287.5 million.
Mr McIntyre's financial disclosure document is available from ABN Amro Craigs on request.
