The Reserve Bank indicated in June it expected the inflation-measuring consumer price index (CPI) to increase by 0.7% in the second quarter to June, with most economists forecasting a 0.8% rise to 5.2%.
ASB economist Christina Leung said yesterday fuel prices, which again went up 4c per litre last week, would be the main boost to the CPI.
"We expect higher fuel prices to be the main driver behind the increase in the CPI over the June quarter," she said in a statement.
Similarly, ANZ economist chief economist Cameron Bagrie was picking a 0.8% rise, with fuel prices contributing 0.2% of the rise and food another 0.2%, he said in a statement.
"The higher annual headline rate is not an immediate cause for concern, as it is strongly influenced by a number of one-off factors," he said of higher electricity and home and contents insurances.
Gross domestic product data released last week, measuring economic growth, surprised economists at 0.8%, prompting several to think the Reserve Bank might consider raising the interest-driving official cash rate (OCR) from the present record-low 2.5% earlier this year, rather than early in 2012.
Mr Bagrie said ANZ research indicated inflation expectations were "unlikely to retreat as quickly as the Reserve Bank asserts".
"Key to the inflation outlook over the next year will be the strength of the New Zealand dollar," he said.
Last week, it hit post-float highs, which would contain import prices and slow export-sector activity.
While playing a "useful role" in containing inflation, the deflationary exchange rate impact could quickly turn if the US dollar strengthens.
Ms Leung forecast January 2012 as the "most likely" timing for the Reserve Bank to lift the OCR, once the bank was confident the New Zealand recovery was regaining momentum, noting there was still "much uncertainty" over reconstruction activity in Christchurch.
Ms Leung said that while there had been an easing of global crude oil prices in recent months, they remained historically high around $US100 ($NZ118) and sharp pump-price increases in New Zealand during early April lifted fuel prices on average for the quarter.
She said a host of Government charges during the past year, including the increases to GST and tobacco excise taxes, higher ACC levies and implementation of the emissions trading scheme, had all contributed to headline CPI, with annual growth expected to peak at 5.2% for the year to June.
