According to the computing modelling programme, the Highlanders’ chances of winning the Super Rugby title are, well, not that bright.
Dunedin firm Iris Data Science, which uses computer modelling to supply information and predictions to businesses, was invited by the Otago Daily Times to make predictions on the outcome of the Super Rugby games this season and it has a comfortable lead at the top of the standings.
Benoit Auvray and Greg Peyroux are the clever people behind the modelling and both have a love of sport. The name LAMP — losing and margin predictor — is a play on cricket’s WASP, which stands for winning and score predictor.
The model uses past results to predict outcomes across a variety of sports.
The soulless heap of microchips has placed South Africa’s Lions as the strong favourite to claim the trophy.
The Johannesburg-based team has a 39.70% probability of winning the tournament according to the robotic machinations, while the Highlanders are languishing in fourth place with a slim 6.48% probability.
The Crusaders are ranked as the most likely of the New Zealand teams to emerge victorious. Their winning probability punched in at 21.94%, while the Hurricanes were just behind at 20.26%.
The four other quarterfinalists — Chiefs 6.38%, Brumbies 2.55%, Stormers 2.28% and Sharks 0.41% — are all lagging behind.
But what would a computer programme know about rugby, right? Well, as it turns out, more than our experts. LAMP favours the Lions, who are the top qualifiers, to come out on top because the South African side starts with an 11.29-point advantage at Ellis Park according to the modelling.
The statistics are skewed, though. The Lions have not played a single New Zealand team this year. Maybe if they had, LAMP would have backed a different winner.