Any half-alert fan could sit down right now and name 80% of a Highlanders squad for next season.
It is the 20% that makes it so interesting.
The Highlanders will name their squad of 38 players at 2pm following — in a day of staggered announcements — the Blues (6am), the Chiefs (8am), the Hurricanes (10am) and the Crusaders (noon).
Incoming head coach Clarke Dermody has the core of a solid squad already in place, but he and the club will have been busy in recent weeks getting the last few signatures on contracts.
The rumour mill has been frustratingly quiet this year, but we can at least look through the squad, position by position, see what might be needed — and take some random guesses.
Hookers (3)
Andrew Makalio and Rhys Marshall are contracted, but the departure of the popular Liam Coltman to France means another rake is required.
The rapidly improving Henry Bell might have been a contender but is scooting off for a season in Major League Rugby.
Hawke’s Bay hookers Kianu Kereru-Symes and Jacob Devery could be options, or we might see the return of the nomadic Leni Apisai, who spent time with the Highlanders and three other clubs this year.
Otherwise, throw a dart and tell me which third-string hooker it hits. Siua Maile from Manawatu?
Props (7)
All Blacks tyro and cult hero Ethan de Groot will lead a solid group that includes Ayden Johnstone, Jermaine Ainsley, Daniel Lienert-Brown and Saula Ma’u.
Josh Hohneck and possibly Jeff Thwaites will be gone.
Tasman prop Luca Inch, who made his Super Rugby debut off the bench this year, seems likely to get a full contract.
Will Dermody give a hard-working Southland prop like Morgan Mitchell a crack? Do the Tevitas, Langi (North Harbour) and Mafileo (Bay of Plenty), have contracts elsewhere? What is Abraham Pole’s situation?
Locks (5)
Manaaki Selby-Rickit has gone to the Chiefs, and Bryn Evans’s sterling service is over.
Josh Dickson, Pari Pari Parkinson — everyone has fingers crossed the big man will be back to full health all season — and rising star Fabian Holland are on the books, and presumably Max Hicks will get another chance to develop.
Four locks might seem enough, but a fifth could be useful insurance, especially as Hicks also covers loose forward.
Otago lock Will Tucker must have done enough to get a chance.
Loose forwards (7)
Generally an area of strength and depth for the Highlanders.
Shannon Frizell, James Lentjes and Hugh Renton are contracted, and we can presume Billy Harmon, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u and Sean Withy will be back for another season.
Christian Lio-Willie is off to the Crusaders, and the status of Gareth Evans — he is off contract, and missed the NPC — is unclear.
The oil is the Highlanders were very keen on Bay of Plenty No 8 Nikora Broughton. Otherwise, what about rising Northland loosie Rob Rush, son of Eric?
A wildcard could be Otago tyro Oliver Haig, who has a contract from 2024, but could be fast-tracked.
Halfbacks (3)
It all looked so simple!
All Blacks great Aaron Smith, next big thing Folau Fakatava, and Otago youngster James Arscott.
Sadly, Fakatava is out of the All Blacks tour with a serious knee injury, and the Highlanders are assessing what role he can play in Super Rugby.
If a third halfback is needed, perhaps Nathan Hastie — on the books from 2024 — will be ready after his own injury layoff, or Otago ring-in Kemara Hauiti-Parapara will get the nod.
First fives (3)
A few question marks over the most crucial of positions.
Mitch Hunt is on contract — but how concerning are the concussion/neck issues that forced him to miss the entire NPC?
Marty Banks is on contract — but, with all respect to the 2015 champion, is he one step past the twilight of his career?
Can Vilimoni Koroi be considered an option at this position?
Does Dermody think regular fullback Sam Gilbert can flourish at 10?
Could Otago star Cam Millar assume a full contract a year earlier than intended?
Is there some juice to word another Garden-Bachop, Jackson, could join from Wellington?
Midfield backs (4)
Thomas Umaga-Jensen (no injuries, please), Josh Timu (no injuries, please) and Scott Gregory will line up.
The status of Ngane Punivai — a good player, though the Highlanders did not see the best of him as he battled long Covid — and Fetuli Paea is unclear.
There is a lot to like about Inga Finau, from Bay of Plenty.
Stags midfielder Isaac Te Tamaki seems to have faded, and it is too soon for Otago rookie Jake Te Hiwi.
Outside backs (6)
Gilbert, Jona Nareki, Connor Garden-Bachop and new recruit Jonah Lowe are contracted, leaving a likely two spots.
Your guess is as good as mine.
Mosese Dawai, Liam Coombes-Fabling, Rory van Vugt and Freedom Vahaakolo all appeared this season, without really convincing, while it is to be assumed Solomon Alaimalo and Vereniki Tikoisolomone will not be back.
Denny Solomona was an intriguing mid-season addition, but surely the Blues or Moana Pasifika have picked him up.
Has new kaumatua Chris Boyd worked his magic and attracted some European winger with X-factor to the Highlanders?
Is Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens contracted anywhere?
