Jobless increase not expected to last

The number of people receiving the unemployment benefit in the southern region has more than doubled in the past 12 months, but the increase is not expected to last.

Ministry of Social Development figures show the number of those aged between 18 and 64 receiving the unemployment benefit south of Timaru has increased 113% from 2129 in December 2008, to 4538 last December.

Nationwide, the trend was similar, with the number of people receiving the unemployment benefit rising from 30,508 in December 2008 to 66,328 last December, a 117% increase.

Although the southern region's latest figures have not yet reached the five-year high of 5073 recorded in 2004, the national figure had surpassed the 65,969 recorded in 2004.

Recipients of all the main benefits (invalids, sickness, domestic purposes and unemployment) also increased 18% in the southern region, from 17,981 in December 2008 to 21,186 last December.

However, to put the figures in perspective, the number of people receiving the unemployment benefit in New Zealand alone in December 1999 was 161,128.

Otago Chamber of Commerce chief executive John Christie was not surprised by the rise in unemployment in the past 12 months.

"The reason is due to the economic downturn that New Zealand and the world faced in 2009.

"These figures were predicted."

Mr Christie said the closure of Fisher and Paykel's manufacturing plant in Mosgiel, the closure of the Burnside meat works and Cadbury's down-sizing might have been contributors to the southern region's "hike" in unemployment.

"Statistics show there has been a general decline in job availability in the South.

"Unemployment figures always lag behind what's happening in the business market.

The market is now showing signs of improvement, and when you have signs of increased business activity and confidence, demand starts to come back for products and services.

"With that demand comes a lowering of unemployment.

"It's hard to crystal-ball gaze, but it appears unemployment may go down again," he said.

Select Recruitment managing director Karen Bardwell agreed.

She said there had already been an increase in the number of jobs available in Dunedin during the past two months.

"Midway through last year, we had about 10 permanent jobs on the board each month.

"At the moment, we have about 15.

"We are definitely seeing improvement in the job market."

Social Development and Employment Minister Paula Bennett painted a slightly different picture.

While the economic outlook was beginning to improve, the peak in unemployment had not yet been reached and she expected unemployment numbers to rise.

Despite the economic climate, she said more people were coming off the unemployment benefit into work.

This time last year, 1772 people came off the benefit.

Last month, the figure was 3810, she said.

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