Economic data out tomorrow is likely to show how painful the recession was for many parts of New Zealand during the three months ended September.
Gross domestic product (GDP) data is a measure of economic activity during a particular period.
Total output is collated in value-added terms to avoid double counting of production.
While the data is comprehensive, the delay in releasing it tends to negate its importance.
However, economists will tomorrow look at what the third quarter was like to get an indication of future growth intentions.
The market consensus is for 0.4% economic growth in the September quarter to give an annual average of a 2% decline in activity.
Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan said economists tended to focus a lot on growth.
With many lead indicators, including business confidence, surging higher through the third and fourth quarters, most commentary had become more upbeat.
There was a likelihood of strong growth ahead.
"But lest we forget, the economy was still sporting the deep scars of the recession in the third quarter.
"Despite our expectation of a small 0.2% gain in GDP over the quarter, economic and business conditions probably felt worse than at any time during the recession as the level of activity hit its lowest point relative to its trend."
For the economy as a whole, that was the toughest part of the cycle, he said.
Westpac estimated the economy was "largely flat" in the third quarter, expanding slightly.
That was in line with high-level gauges from business and consumer confidence surveys and the collection of various industry indicators.
"An outcome close to our estimate would add to our view that a turning point in overall economic activity occurred around the middle of the year."
There were plenty of negative influences around in the third quarter.
Most notable of those was an anticipated 4.4% contraction in construction as the frightful economic conditions of 12 months ago saw investment plans delayed or cancelled and a slump in building consents at the time, Mr O'Donovan said.
The resulting drop in both residential and non-residential building activity would show up in the third quarter data.
"We expect to see some positive signs in the third quarter for the recovery ahead."
A much-improved outlook for our major trading partner economies and stabilisation at home saw import volumes rise.
Increased freight flow and a bounce back in both domestic and international air travel would see transport sector GDP post a solid gain.
Real estate would lift on the back of more house sales.
The pace of economic recovery would be a critical factor behind the timing and speed of monetary tightening in 2010, he said.
Indicators to date suggested the first Reserve Bank interest rate hike would be in the first part of next year.
