Comment: Real monetary alternatives needed

Labour leader Phil Goff has achieved what was probably his main aim - publicity - when he ended a 20-year political consensus on monetary policy.

"Our Reserve Bank policy targets are not well designed to produce a stable and competitive exchange rate, nor to keep interest rates as low as possible," Mr Goff said in a speech to Federated Farmers in Wellington.

Whether Mr Goff can continue getting the headlines Labour needs to get some momentum on economic policy as it continues to lag National in the polls depends on whether Mr Goff or Labour finance spokesman David Cunliffe come up with some credible alternatives.

So far, they have not met that test, with Mr Cunliffe issuing a vague statement about it being not realistic to cling to the official cash rate as the sole mechanism to control both inflation and the value of the dollar.

Predictably, comments have been split down both sides of the political spectrum, including the continuing call from the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association for the Reserve Bank to lower its official cash rate further than the current 2.5% to help its members.

Association chief executive John Walley said New Zealand needed to look no further than Singapore for an example of good monetary policy.

Singapore's policy had delivered a stable exchange rate, lower inflation, lower interest rates and higher growth than New Zealand for decades, he said.

Business New Zealand chief executive Phil O'Reilly said the Labour Party's decision to renege on its commitment to the multi-party consensus on the Reserve Bank Act raised serious concerns.

The destruction of the consensus would raise questions internationally about New Zealand's financial stability and its soundness as an investment destination.

Mr O'Reilly warned that reneging on a "sound institution" raised the possibility of sending mixed messages to the Reserve Bank.

"Instead of giving a clear direction to focus on inflation, this would encourage the Reserve Bank to make trade-offs between policy areas, politicising the institution and in effect giving it the power to act as an alternative government," he said.

Unions fell in behind Mr Goff by calling for changes to monetary policy, saying it was too narrowly focused on interest rates.

Mr Goff said the battle against inflation was no longer the most important priority - growth and wealth creation were equally vital.

Farmers were heavily exposed to interest rate movements, and even more so to the exchange rate.

"We export 95% of everything our farms produce. When our exchange rate surges, it undermines the competitiveness of our prices in destination markets.

"When the exchange rate falls, the price of inputs like fuel can soar unexpectedly."

But Reserve Bank policy targets did not achieve stability, and when faced with a surge of domestic demand the response was to increase interest rates which fuelled more inflows of foreign capital, which might then be lent out, creating even stronger domestic demand.

"So New Zealand's overseas debt increases inexorably, while monetary policy punishes our most productive businesses and first-home buyers - just about the two sectors that we least want to affect," Mr Goff said.

The official cash rate punished the tradeable sector for inflation in other sectors.

It skewed investment away from productive areas of the economy, he said.

Labour would be studying options to improve monetary policy.

Labour goals were:
• A stable and competitive exchange rate.

• Reduced interest rates for businesses and home owners.

• Continued priorities of price stability and low inflation.

• To guard against expectations of price rises.

Mr Goff said how the goals interacted with other objectives would be an important part of Labour's economic policy for the next election.

Former treasurer Winston Peters and former finance minister Michael Cullen have talked about changes to the Reserve Bank Act.

For Mr Goff, talking about high interest rates and the soaring dollar is a populist issue that could see Labour lift in poll ratings.

Whether that lift can be sustained depends on alternatives put forward by him and Mr Cunliffe.

Having to wait until the next general election for detail is far too long.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

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