The venison kill could slip below 400,000 animals next year.
It was expected 480,000 animals would be killed this season, but Deer Industry New Zealand (DINZ) figures show 360,000 could be slaughtered next year, nearly half the 2005 peak, as the industry continues to contract.
Silver Fern Farms venison marketing manager Karl Buchanan told a Southland-Fiordland Deer Farmers Association field day at Waikoikoi last week that DINZ figures in 2005 showed 780,000 animals were slaughtered and exports were 30,000 tonnes.
Export volumes could be down to 17,000 tonnes this year.
This was despite strong prices this season, with chilled venison making $8 to $8.50 a kg earlier this season, before starting a seasonal fall to about $7 a kg.
Mr Buchanan said with 85% of venison exported to Europe, the Euro-New Zealand exchange rate was crucial.
At current market prices, a NZ-Euro cross rate of 40 would return farmers $10.93 a kg.
At 50 the price would be $8.36 and at 60 it would be $6.42.
Markets were positive but conservative, with some stocks held over from last year, he said, but demand remained high for chilled venison.
Demand for lower value cuts remained strong, while higher value cuts, such as loins, were under some pressure.
Looking ahead, Mr Buchanan said the reduction in the New Zealand kill would have a positive impact on demand, but it also depended on the success of the northern hemisphere wild game season and the volume of stock on hand.