New Zealand's largest listed company launched the new 3G network and a large range of handsets in May and reportedly added 100,000 customers in the first six weeks.
Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said yesterday the mobile figures that would be released with the full-year profit figures on Friday should reveal how many of those customers came from Vodafone.
Vodafone reported very low customer growth of just 9000 in the June quarter, compared with up to 40,000 per quarter in the preceding four quarters.
"We believe the new mobile network could prove to be a positive share catalyst, but the first real evidence of this is probably still a quarter away," she said.
Forsyth Barr is forecasting Telecom to report group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $1.7 billion for the year ended June, down 12.4% on the previous corresponding period. Reported profit is forecast to be $391 million, down nearly 60% on last year.
A fourth quarter unimputed dividend of 6c is likely.
Ms Kinnaird said she was not expecting any change to the full-year 2010 earnings guidance given at Telecom's May briefing day and it was probably too early for any further substantive comment on the Government's fibre initiative.
"The Government's fibre initiative is potentially negative for Telecom. Although if Telecom is a partner - as we believe likely - the impact may be less adverse and an offsetting relaxation of Telecom's undertakings is likely.
"Nevertheless, profit growth is not expected before 2011."
Today, SkyCity Entertainment Group is expected to report flat earnings of $299 million for the June year along with a final 6c dividend.
The result would highlight SkyCity's resilience to the economic downturn, Ms Kinnaird said.
The Australian casinos were expected to again be a highlight with the Adelaide turnaround continuing.
"We are expecting evidence to be delivered that SkyCity's new management strategies are turning around the Auckland core gaming performance, in particular the high margin gaming machine business."
While the weak economic and unemployment outlook remained near-term risks, Forsyth Barr expected further evidence of improvements in the core gaming business in 2010, she said.
