'Resilient' commercial property market in Dunedin

Stephen Cairns.
Stephen Cairns.
Dunedin commercial property investors were proving resilient as the recession continued to bite, Colliers International Dunedin branch manager Stephen Cairns said yesterday.

Commenting on the latest commercial real estate confidence survey, Mr Cairns said Dunedin was a place where its property investors liked to buy locally.

"Investors in this market tend to be experienced, well-informed and conservative, particularly in their approach to debt. That makes for an orderly market in comparison to, say, Auckland and Queenstown, where there has always been more speculation."

Dunedin's confidence level sat at net - 28%, above Wellington, Christchurch, Queenstown and Auckland.

The most positive region in the country for commercial property investor confidence was Nelson at -10%.

In Dunedin, rentals were strong and yields were holding, Mr Cairns said.

There was strong demand for the leasing of properties across all commercial sectors, particularly in the industrial areas.

Many of Dunedin's deals were done "off market", where investors approached agents about buying or leasing but wanted to keep the deal quiet rather than be in the full glare of publicity, he said.

However, although the local market had suffered, as usual, Dunedin had not seen the big highs and lows as experienced by Queenstown and Auckland.

"Before things turned down, the market was extra strong but transactions were not numerous. When we approached people about selling their property, they asked what they would do with the money, as interest rates were so low in comparison to property returns."

Mr Cairns, who moved to Dunedin as a valuer in 1984, said the city was showing the same characteristics as it always did during a downturn - growth was continuing but it was slower than normal.

Sales were being made to out-of-town investors but the "traditional" local market meant just that - locals buying local property, he said.

Some of the larger investment properties, such as the Harvey Norman Centre, Hoyts and the Meridian, were owned by Auckland or international owners.

That made for a "healthy market".

Looking ahead, Mr Cairns could see a continued recovery in the Dunedin commercial property market but there seemed to be no greenfield developments on any drawing boards.

Banks were still cautious about lending money, except for brilliant projects.

The Colliers survey had been running for nearly four years but for the first time it covered the main regional markets where Colliers had an office, the company's research director, Alan McMahon, said.

Queenstown and Auckland were the markets which became the most overheated in the years to 2007 and it was not surprising they were taking longer to recover.

The survey showed that optimism was sharply up in Auckland and Wellington for the first time since a steady downward trend began in March 2007.

In Auckland, the net result moved from -72% in March to -45% in June.

In Wellington, confidence moved from -63% to -37% in the same period.

Colliers surveyed 3000 people.

 

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