Despite a small improvement in Dunedin's property prices, the market remains "finely balanced", according to the May report from Quotable Value.
After recording an 8% decline in prices for the 12 months to the end of April, the figure to the end of May was down just 5.4%.
The national figure was a 4.1% drop.
QV valuer David Paterson yesterday said the average sale price in Dunedin increased from $257,160 to $264,180.
"This improvement in the market, which we have witnessed over the last three months, is despite some dire predictions from a number of sources."
But he warned it was too early to say the market had "turned".
"The market is finely balanced and it wouldn't take much to send it into further decline.
While affordability has improved . . . there is a real concern about job security.
This is likely to be the biggest risk to a continued improvement . . . over the next 12 months."
Average prices (with percentage change over the past 12 months): central and northern Dunedin $279,164 (down 4.6%), peninsula/coastal $248,253 (3% fall), southern city $249,172 (up 5.4%), Taieri $265,764 (7.5% fall), Clutha $135,744 (6.9% fall), Waitaki $192,180 (9.9 % fall), Central Otago $319,554 (6.9% fall), Queenstown Lakes $600,414 (8.4% fall), Southland $233,610 (5.8% fall), Gore $149,427 (4.2% fall).
