The budget to be released this afternoon by Finance Minister Bill English has been called the most important in New Zealand's history.
Budgets delivered by Sir Roger Douglas in 1984, as part of the David Lange-led Labour government, and Ruth Richardson in 1991, as part of the Jim Bolger-led National government, changed the structure of New Zealand's economy.
Deregulation, more self-sufficiency, privatisation and lower state influence in daily living was the prime motivation from both of those former finance ministers, who went on to be both adored and reviled for their actions.
As usual, budget details have been drip-fed out in the past two weeks.
A bit of spending on health, some more on education, a hint here and a nod there - all designed to clear the decks so Mr English can have our undivided attention for his message.
Hardly anyone is expecting much news on tax changes, except a deferral of the tax cuts, perhaps returning to type by promising their restoration after the next election.
What Mr English needs to do is avoid a ratings downgrade by international ratings agencies like Standard & Poor's, which is poised to pounce today after the budget becomes public.
Why we should all be concerned about a downgrade is that it would result in a 1.5% rise in interest rates in New Zealand.
As a ballpark figure, that would mean another $600 million in interest on government debt.
More importantly, a 1.5% rise is another $3000 annual interest on a $200,000 mortgage.
The debt story is a main reason why Mr English needs to focus on the level and quality of government spending.
This is why it is important.
If he borrows for infrastructure, there will be no credit downgrade.
If he borrows for tax cuts or propping up the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (Cullen fund), a downgrade will follow.
Mr English is no revolutionary finance minister.
He is a conservative.
There will be no massive social spend-up today, something that will disappoint some.
However, with the next election a couple of years away he can afford to disappoint a few by not delivering on election promises and blaming the world financial situation.
