Transtasman markets in holiday mode

Chris Timms
Chris Timms
Transtasman sharemarkets were in holiday mode yesterday.

Turnover was light in both the NZX and the ASX.

The NZX barely turned over $24 million while the ASX was $A844 million by late afternoon, when it normally traded in billions of dollars.

The NZX ended up 9.6 points at 2677.64 on subdued turnover.

ABN Amro Craigs broker Chris Timms said the NZX would remain subdued until the third week in January, when traders returned from holidays.

"Even then, I don't think we will see a tick up in the market - if we ever do - until late January, early February.

"The early focus will be on the retail companies when they come to the market. Attention will also be on the Reserve Bank and its official cash rate decision on January 29."

Asked who was trading this week, Mr Timms said it was mainly overseas investors looking for bargains.

A few of his clients had called but they were more interested in talking about Christmas and New Year's Eve socially than how to spend their money.

During the day, Contact Energy rose 11c on volume of 44,000 shares. That indicated how easy it was to skew the market during a low trading day, he said.

Japan's Nikkei average fell 0.8% yesterday, the last full trading day of the year.

The Tokyo sharemarket ends the year with a half-day of trades today and will not reopen until January 5.

Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, Aioi Insurance Co and Nissay Dowa General Insurance Co are in talks to merge, a company source said, a move that would create Japan's largest non-life insurer.

"The only trading factor is insurers. Investors liked the merger news as it sparked hopes of greater profitability and less competition in the sector," Yoshinori Nagano, a chief strategist at Daiwa Asset Management, said.

Battered US stocks start the week today on expectations of a gradual market recovery as president-elect Barack Obama moves to drag the world's biggest economy out of recession.

The US stock market has risen about 20% from the lows reached on November 2.

"Chances that we saw the bottom of the bear have increased because of the massive easing done by the Federal Reserve since then," Alfred Goldman, chief market strategist at Wachovia Securities, said.

The Fed had vowed to do whatever it takes to help the economy and the credit markets, as it slashed interest rates to virtually zero two weeks ago to jump-start the economy from the worst slump since the Great Depression.

Mr Goldman said stock valuation levels were "very attractive" and "the risk of a depression is extremely unlikely", forecasting the recession may end by next northern hemisphere summer.

"We do know that 2009 will bring a new slate of ideas from a very popular president-elect," he said ahead of Mr Obama's inauguration on January 20 and the prospect of a massive stimulus package by his new administration.

In the week to Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Wall Street's benchmark index, fell 0.74% to 8515.55 following a 0.59% drop the previous week.

The tech-studded Nasdaq shed 2.17% to 1530.24 while the broad-market Standard and Poor's 500 was down 1.69% to 872.80.

The stock decline stemmed from weak data on the ailing housing sector, concerns over the fate of struggling automakers, plus plunging corporate earnings, retail sales and US commercial property values.

"The underpinnings of the markets continue to improve, but it is still too early to say that the worst is finally over," Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, said.

"Our best guess at this point is that we rally a bit early in the New Year as investors wish 2008 good riddance," he said.

He cautioned that the market could visit old lows during the first half to eight months of the year.

 

Add a Comment