While operating costs are rising and fewer international students are predicted, overall enrolments for next year are expected to increase by 223, due in part to the tightening job market and more school-leavers and mature people opting for study over employment.
Total equivalent full-time student (efts) numbers next year were expected to reach 18,463, up 1.5% on this year, planning and funding director of operations David Thomson said in a report to last week's university council meeting.
International student numbers, which have been steadily declining since 2005, were expected to drop by 2.1% to 1416.
But enrolments from New Zealand students were expected to be "solid" - up 252 over this year.
The combined result was overall growth of 223 efts.
First-year enrolments would continue to be constrained by the number of beds available in residential colleges, so there would be limited opportunity for Otago to take many of the school-leavers or older students nationally who were expected to choose study over employment, Mr Thomson's report said.
"Labour market effects will, however, boost local commencing student numbers slightly, both in respect of mature students and Dunedin school-leavers. There is also some domestic pipeline growth already in the system, and the tightening job market will assist with the retention of students for further study."
A 50% decline was expected in the number of students undertaking sub-degree courses next year, Mr Thomson's report said.
That was because several sub-degree courses offered through the Dunedin College of Education were being phased out. The college and university merged in 2007.
Enrolments were expected to be slightly up in undergraduate and taught postgraduate courses, while a 3.6% increase in numbers was expected at research postgraduate level, with efts expected to reach a record 1411.
Under a new funding regime introduced at the beginning of this year, tertiary rolls are capped and institutions must negotiate efts funding annually with the Tertiary Education Commission (TEC). Otago's 2009 budget document said Otago had secured $240.2 million of TEC funding for next year, including funding for its forecast roll growth.
It was hoped another $900,000 would be obtained from TEC's Priorities for Focus Fund set aside for specific projects.
