All eyes on China this week

Chris Timms.
Chris Timms.
China is likely to remain a key global focus this week after its markets were closed last week for two days due to public holidays.

Chinese inflation figures will be released today and industrial production information will be published on Saturday.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said there had been ''relative stability'' in other markets while China's markets were closed and there had not been any more news on China during the period.

However, with the US dollar strengthening towards the end of last week, there could be further volatility in the Chinese market.

Despite a 39% fall in Chinese shares since June, the Shanghai Composite index was down only 2.3% year-to-date and was still 37% higher than it was a year ago.

Some economists said the Chinese holiday was a circuit-breaker, stopping further falls in global stocks, he said.

The Reserve Bank's official cash rate review was the main focus in New Zealand this week but other data due out includes August electronic card spending, on Thursday, and August Real Estate Institute house prices and sales.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said retail card spending had slowed after a very strong start to the year, albeit not especially sharply.

In July, the level of core spending - excluding fuel and vehicle-related sales - was still 5.9% higher than a year ago.

''But the economic climate has chilled significantly in the last few months and consumer confidence has fallen sharply. We would expect to see a more noticeable loss of momentum in retail activity in the months ahead, although migration and tourist spending will continue to provide some support.''

Westpac reported core spending slowed from 0.5% to 0.3% in August.

Falling petrol prices would have weighed on fuel spending, making for a 0.1% rise in retail spending overall.

There was no fixed date for the release of house sales figures but they were expected later this week.

Early data for August suggested housing markets across New Zealand were shifting gear, Mr Stephens said.

Auckland was experiencing frenetic turnover but a slowdown in the rate of price inflation while prices were accelerating in other parts of the upper North Island.

Events in Australia to watch for this week were the August NAB business conditions survey and the August labour force figures, due on Thursday, Mr Timms said.

There was a sharp drop in confidence last month after two solid months, thought to be a temporary reaction to the Federal Budget.

The falls were attributed to worsening conditions in the mining, transport and engineering sectors.

In terms of employment, there was a gain of 38,500 in July and that was expected to moderate in August.

The unemployment rate was expected to fall marginally from last month's 6.3% and the participation rate was forecast to remain steady at 65%, he said.

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